IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-03-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Toman, Michael
  • Krautkraemer, Jeffrey

Abstract

In this paper, we first present and discuss the basic logic underlying all neoclassical economic theories of “optimal” energy supply: maximization of the present value of some stream of economic returns. We then discuss how the economic theory of optimal resource depletion has evolved since Hotelling’s classic 1931 article. We also consider the power of the theory to support improved empirical understanding of actual behavior. Our discussion of empirical literature indicates that this work has so far provided only limited empirical understanding.

Suggested Citation

  • Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-01, Resources for the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-03-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-03-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cairns, Robert D. & Lasserre, Pierre, 1991. "The role of investment in multiple-deposit extraction: Some results and remaining puzzles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 52-66, July.
    2. Epple, Dennis & Londregan, John, 1993. "Strategies for modeling exhaustible resource," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1077-1107, Elsevier.
    3. Pierre Lasserre, 1985. "Capacity Choice by Mines," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 831-842, November.
    4. Adelman, M A, 1990. "Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-10, February.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    7. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Stephen G. Powell & Shmuel S. Oren, 1989. "The Transition to Nondepletable Energy: Social Planning and Market Models of Capacity Expansion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 373-383, June.
    9. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    10. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
    11. Cairns, Robert D, 1990. "The Economics of Exploration for Non-renewable Resources," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 361-395.
    12. Farzin, Y Hossein, 1984. "The Effect of the Discount Rate on Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 841-851, October.
    13. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    14. Deacon Robert T., 1993. "Taxation, Depletion, and Welfare: A Simulation Study of the U.S. Petroleum Resource," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 159-187, March.
    15. Margaret A. Walls, 1994. "Using a 'Hybrid' Approach to Model Oil and Gas Supply: A Case Study of the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(1), pages 1-19.
    16. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    17. Swierzbinski, Joseph E & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1989. "Exploration and Exhaustible Resources: The Microfoundations of Aggregate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 175-186, February.
    18. Walls, Margaret A., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas : A survey of existing approaches," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 287-309, September.
    19. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications," ifo Working Paper Series 75, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Heun, Matthew Kuperus & de Wit, Martin, 2012. "Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 147-158.
    3. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2013. "Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 27-40.
    4. Diego Barril and Fernando Navajas, 2015. "Natural Gas Supply Behavior under Interventionism: The Case of Argentina," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    5. Barril, Diego & Navajas, Fernando H., 2011. "What drove down natural gas production in Argentina?," MPRA Paper 35726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2011.
    6. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
    7. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2008. "Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4205-4216, November.
    8. Luo, Dongkun & Zhao, Xu, 2012. "Modeling the operating costs for petroleum exploration and development projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 189-195.
    9. Alan Gelb & Kai Kaiser & Lorena Viñuela, 2012. "How Much Does Natural Resource Extraction Really Diminish National Wealth? The Implications of Discovery," Working Papers id:4874, eSocialSciences.
    10. Heinrich, Torsten, 2014. "Resource Depletion, Growth, Collapse, and the Measurement of Capital," MPRA Paper 54044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alan Gelb, Kai Kaiser, and Lorena Vinuela, 2012. "How Much Does Natural Resource Extraction Really Diminish National Wealth? The Implications of Discovery - Working Paper 290," Working Papers 290, Center for Global Development.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    2. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    3. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    4. Anthony J. Venables, 2014. "Depletion and Development: Natural Resource Supply with Endogenous Field Opening," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 313-336.
    5. Julien Daubanes & Pierre Lasserre, 2019. "The supply of non-renewable resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1084-1111, August.
    6. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    7. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    8. Sweeney, James L., 1993. "Economic theory of depletable resources: An introduction," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 759-854, Elsevier.
    9. A. Marvasti, 2000. "Resource Characteristics, Extraction Costs, and Optimal Exploitation of Mineral Resources," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(4), pages 395-408, December.
    10. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
    12. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    13. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
    14. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    15. Cairns, Robert D., 1990. "Les ressources non renouvelables : le côté offre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(4), pages 444-460, décembre.
    16. Hansen, James & Gross, Isaac, 2018. "Commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 157-180.
    17. Kamiar Mohaddes, 2013. "Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 162-193, June.
    18. Elin Berg & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1999. "Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties," Discussion Papers 245, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Eiji Sawada & Shunsuke Managi, 2014. "Effects of Technological Change on Non-renewable Resource Extraction and Exploration," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 1996. "Non-conventional fuel tax credits and the extraction R&D model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 207-215, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    depletable resources; energy; intertemporal optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-03-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.