Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-Situ Recovery
High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian bitumen deposits. The results show the uncertainties associated with the future costs of synthetic crude oil. Carbon costs have a large impact of the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon-intensity of the recovery techniques. The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined. In the case of mined SCO, the maximum production rate, the ultimate recovery rate and the depletion parameters show the largest influence on the results, while learning parameters dominate in the case of in-situ SCO.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M. & van Beek, Paul & Hordijk, Leen & Van Wassenhove, Luk N., 1995. "Interactions between operational research and environmental management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 229-243, September.
- Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
- Rath-Nagel, St. & Voss, A., 1981. "Energy models for planning and policy assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 99-114, October.
- Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
- Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," Discussion Papers dp-03-01, Resources For the Future.
- Roumasset, J. & Isaak, D. & Fesharaki, F., 1983. "Oil prices without OPEC : A walk on the supply-side," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 164-170, July.
- Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2008.
"Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4205-4216, November.
- Méjean, A. & Hope, C., 2008. "Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0810, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
- McDonald, Alan & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2001. "Learning rates for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 255-261, March.
- Junius, Karsten, 1997. "Economies of scale: A survey of the empirical literature," Kiel Working Papers 813, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Marvin B. Lieberman, 1984. "The Learning Curve and Pricing in the Chemical Processing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 213-228, Summer.
- Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Roumasset, James, 1990. "Competitive oil prices and scarcity rents when the extraction cost function is convex," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 311-320, December.
- Grubb, Michael, 2001. "Who's afraid of atmospheric stabilisation? Making the link between energy resources and climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 837-845, September.
- Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
- Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.