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Hotelling under Pressure

Author

Listed:
  • T. Anderson, Soren
  • Kellog, Ryan
  • W. Salant, Stephen

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

We show that oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to price incentives. Drilling activity and costs, however, do respond strongly to prices. To explain these facts, we reformulate Hotelling's (1931) classic model of exhaustible resource extraction as a drilling problem: firms choose when to drill, but production from existing wells is constrained by reservoir pressure, which decays as oil is extracted. The model implies a modified Hotelling rule for drilling revenues net of costs and explains why production is typically constrained. It also rationalizes regional production peaks and observed patterns of price expectations following demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Anderson, Soren & Kellog, Ryan & W. Salant, Stephen, "undated". "Hotelling under Pressure," Discussion Papers dp-14-20, Resources For the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-20
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil prices; oil extraction; decline curve; oil drilling; rig rental rates; exhaustible resourceCreation-Date: 2014-07-30;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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