IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/resene/v23y2001i2p133-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Hotelling Principle, backwardation of futures prices and the values of developed petroleum reserves -- the production constraint hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Thompson, Andrew C.

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, Andrew C., 2001. "The Hotelling Principle, backwardation of futures prices and the values of developed petroleum reserves -- the production constraint hypothesis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 133-156, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:133-156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928-7655(00)00040-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Hoel, 1978. "Resource Extraction, Uncertainty, and Learning," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 642-645, Autumn.
    2. Glenn C. Loury, 1978. "The Optimal Exploitation of an Unknown Reserve," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 621-636.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    4. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1981. "Hotelling's "Economics of Exhaustible Resources": Fifty Years Later," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 65-73, March.
    6. G. C. Watkins, 1992. "The Hotelling Principle: Autobahn or Cul de Sac?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
    7. Smith, V. Kerry, 1981. "The empirical relevance of hotelling's model for natural resources," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 105-117, October.
    8. Adelman, M A, 1990. "Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-10, February.
    9. Richard J. Gilbert, 1979. "Optimal Depletion of an Uncertain Stock," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 47-57.
    10. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    11. Geoffrey Heal & Michael Barrow, 1980. "The Relationship between Interest Rates and Metal Price Movements," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 161-181.
    12. Raul Susmel & Andrew Thompson, 1997. "Volatility, storage and convenience: Evidence from natural gas markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    15. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    16. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "The Pricing of Oil and Gas: Some Further Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1009-1018, July.
    17. Adelman, M. A., 1991. "User cost in oil production," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 217-240, September.
    18. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
    19. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    20. Morris A. Adelman, 1993. "Modelling World Oil Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-32.
    21. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cannizzaro, Anthony P. & Weiner, Robert J., 2015. "Multinational investment and voluntary disclosure: Project-level evidence from the petroleum industry," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-47.
    2. Leach, Andrew & Mason, Charles F. & Veld, Klaas van ‘t, 2011. "Co-optimization of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 893-912.
    3. Lips, Johannes, 2018. "Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Ringlund, Guro Bornes & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2008. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 371-396, March.
    5. Ferdinand E. Banks, 2004. "Beautiful and not So Beautiful Minds: An Introductory Essay on Economic Theory and the Supply of Oil," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(1), pages 27-62, March.
    6. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    7. Okullo, Samuel & Reynes, F. & Hofkes, M., 2016. "Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox," Other publications TiSEM 2ef0304e-8645-42f7-9146-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Okullo, Samuel & Reynes, F. & Hofkes, M., 2016. "Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox," Discussion Paper 2016-024, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Okullo, S.J. & Reynes, F. & Hofkes, M.W., 2014. "Modeling Peak Oil and the Geological Constraints on Oil Production," Other publications TiSEM db6aecf8-bc32-478d-b0cd-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2020. "Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition," Working Papers in Economics 789, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Cairns, Robert D., 2014. "The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-85.
    12. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    13. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    14. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest & Ashley Vissing, 2016. "Trophy Hunting vs. Manufacturing Energy: The Price-Responsiveness of Shale Gas," NBER Working Papers 22532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    2. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
    3. Barbiroli, Giancarlo & Focacci, Antonio, 1999. "An appropriate mechanism of fuels pricing for sustainable development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 625-636, October.
    4. Simone Kelly, 2017. "The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 511-531, June.
    5. Santopietro, George D., 1998. "Alternative methods for estimating resource rent and depletion cost: the case of Argentina's YPF," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-48, March.
    6. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    7. Cairns, Robert D., 1990. "Les ressources non renouvelables : le côté offre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(4), pages 444-460, décembre.
    8. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    9. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," Discussion Papers dp-03-01, Resources For the Future.
    10. Blose, Laurence E. & Shieh, Joseph C. P., 1995. "The impact of gold price on the value of gold mining stock," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 125-139.
    11. Davis, Graham A. & Moore, David J., 1998. "Valuing mineral reserves when capacity constrains production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 121-125, July.
    12. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2013. "Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 532-541.
    13. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    14. Kolstad, Charles D., 2000. "Energy and Depletable Resources: Economics and Policy, 1973-1998," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-305, May.
    15. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    16. Fischer, Carolyn, 2001. "Read this paper later: procrastination with time-consistent preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 249-269, November.
    17. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 1996. "Non-conventional fuel tax credits and the extraction R&D model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 207-215, September.
    18. Okullo, S.J. & Reynes, F. & Hofkes, M.W., 2014. "Modeling Peak Oil and the Geological Constraints on Oil Production," Other publications TiSEM db6aecf8-bc32-478d-b0cd-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    20. Robert D. Cairns and Graham A. Davis, 2015. "Mineral Depletion and the Rules of Resource Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:133-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.