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Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Margaret E. Slade
  • Henry Thille

    () (Department of Economics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z1, Canada
    Department of Economics, The University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1 Canada)

Abstract

We review the empirical literature that extends and tests the Hotelling model of the optimal depletion of an exhaustible resource. The theory is briefly described to set the stage for the review of empirical tests and applications. Those tests can be roughly divided into two broad categories—descriptive and structural—and we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each before presenting the empirical studies of optimal extraction under conditions of exhaustibility. We also discuss some econometric pitfalls that applied researchers face when attempting to test the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:1:y:2009:p:239-259
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    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caputo, Michael R., 2011. "A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating, vertically integrated, nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, September.
    2. Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye, 2015. "Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    3. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
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    5. Karanfil, Fatih & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2017. "Reconsidering the scarcity factor in the dynamics of oil markets: An empirical investigation of the (mis)measurement of oil reserves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 209-218.
    6. Atewamba, Calvin & Gaudet, Gérard, 2014. "Prices of durable nonrenewable natural resources under stochastic investment opportunities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 528-541.
    7. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Karl Skogstad & Robert J. Petrunia, 2019. "The impact of labour policies on Canadian gold mines in World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 163-200, May.
    9. Beatrix Gaitan & Terry Roe, 2012. "International Trade, Exhaustible-Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 72-93, January.
    10. Diderik Lund, 2009. "Rent Taxation for Nonrenewable Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 287-307, September.
    11. Slade, Margaret E., 2015. "The rise and fall of an industry: Entry in U.S. copper mining, 1835–1986," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-169.
    12. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    13. Hart, Rob, 2012. "The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand," Working Paper Series 2012:01, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    14. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    15. Nikolaos Kourogenis & Phoebe Koundouri, "undated". "On the Stationarity of Exhaustible Natural Resource Prices," DEOS Working Papers 1022, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    16. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Environmental and resource economics: A Canadian retrospective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1381-1413, December.
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    19. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2018. "Understanding oil scarcity through drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 261-269.
    20. Calvin Atewamba & Bruno Nkuiya, 2017. "Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 169-203, January.
    21. John Asker & Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2017. "Market Power, Production (Mis)Allocation and OPEC," NBER Working Papers 23801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    23. Bocar Samba Ba & Philippe Mahenc, 2019. "Is Recycling a Threat or an Opportunity for the Extractor of an Exhaustible Resource?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1109-1134, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hotelling model; optimal extraction; empirical tests; oil and gas; nonfuel minerals;

    JEL classification:

    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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