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Imperfect competition in the international energy market: a computerized Nash-Cournot model

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  • Salant, Stephen W.

Abstract

This paper describes the conceptual structure, properties, and solution approach of a computerized model of the international energy market. The model treats energy producers as players in a multistage, noncooperative game. The goal of each player (or cartel of players) is assumed to be maximization of discounted profit subject to technical, political, and resource constraints. The model calculates that collection of intertemporal extraction and price paths from which a player can unilaterally deviate only at a loss---the open-loop, Nash equilibrium. The model integrates the theory of exhaustible resources due to Hotelling and the theory of oligopoly due to Nash and Cournot. Although useful as a teaching device to illustrate theoretical results, its main function is to facilitate analysis of real-world resource problems. The model is flexible, allowing the user to specify not only cost, demand and reserve information but also assumptions about who belongs to what coalition. Two shortcomings deserve note. The strategies of players are restricted to time-dated (open-loop) paths. Also, lags cannot be accommodated in the current version. The restriction of the strategy space significantly increases tractability and will permit the incorporation of lags and other complications in the future. The model was built under government contract and is in the public domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Salant, Stephen W., 1982. "Imperfect competition in the international energy market: a computerized Nash-Cournot model," MPRA Paper 12021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12021
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12021/1/MPRA_paper_12021.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Loury, Glenn C, 1986. "A Theory of 'Oil'igopoly: Cournot Equilibrium in Exhaustible Resource Markets with Fixed Supplies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 285-301, June.
    2. Tracy R. Lewis & Richard Schmalensee, 1980. "On Oligopolistic Markets for Nonrenewable Natural Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 475-491.
    3. Salant, Stephen W, 1976. "Exhaustible Resources and Industrial Structure: A Nash-Cournot Approach to the World Oil Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1079-1093, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Pal, Debashis & Sarkar, Jyotirmoy, 2002. "Spatial competition among multi-store firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-190, February.
    3. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    4. Yang, Chin W. & Hwang, Ming J. & Sohng, Soong N., 2002. "The Cournot competition in the spatial equilibrium model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 139-154, March.
    5. Wan, Rui & Boyce, John R., 2014. "Non-renewable resource Stackelberg games," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 102-121.
    6. Paulus, Moritz & Trueby, Johannes & Growitsch, Christian, 2011. "Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    7. Antonio RIBBA, "undated". "Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade," EcoMod2010 259600141, EcoMod.
    8. Paulus, Moritz, 2012. "How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?," EWI Working Papers 2012-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    9. Olivier Massol & Omer Rifaat, 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 2016.29, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    10. repec:spr:decfin:v:40:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10203-017-0187-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Groot, Fons & Withagen, Cees & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2003. "Strong time-consistency in the cartel-versus-fringe model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 287-306, November.
    12. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    13. Boyce, John R. & Vojtassak, Lucia, 2008. "An 'oil'igopoly theory of exploration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 428-454, August.
    14. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    15. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    16. Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Egging, Ruud, 2009. "Solving stochastic complementarity problems in energy market modeling using scenario reduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1028-1040, September.
    17. Gupta, Barnali & Lai, Fu-Chuan & Pal, Debashis & Sarkar, Jyotirmoy & Yu, Chia-Ming, 2004. "Where to locate in a circular city?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 759-782, June.
    18. Ngo Long, 2011. "Dynamic Games in the Economics of Natural Resources: A Survey," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 115-148, March.
    19. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    20. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    21. Riddle, Matthew & Macal, Charles M. & Conzelmann, Guenter & Combs, Todd E. & Bauer, Diana & Fields, Fletcher, 2015. "Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 307-321.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    world oil model; open-loop; oligopoly model; Hotelling; exhaustible resources;

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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