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A Test of the Hotelling Rule Using Old-Growth Timber Data

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  • Livernois, J.
  • Thille, H.
  • Zhang, X.

Abstract

The paper tests Hotelling's prediction that scarcity rent for a non-renewable resource will rise at the rate of discount in a market equilibrium. We perform the test using data for old-growth timber, a resource that is effectively non-renewable. In contrast to previous studies, for this resource a measure of scarcity rent is directly observable in the form of stumpage price bids in timber auctions. We construct a model that allows for replanting and captures the institutional framework of the western U.S. timber market. The modified Hotelling rule that we derive is not rejected in several of our specifications.
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Suggested Citation

  • Livernois, J. & Thille, H. & Zhang, X., 2003. "A Test of the Hotelling Rule Using Old-Growth Timber Data," Working Papers 2003-4, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2003-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Does the Oil Price Adjust Optimally to Oil Field Discoveries?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/169, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    2. Ludwig, Markus, 2012. "The Visible Hand: National Oil Companies, Oil Supply and the Ermergence of the Hotelling Rent," Working papers 2012/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Caputo, Michael R., 2011. "A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating, vertically integrated, nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, September.
    4. GĂ©rard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    5. Ian Keay, 2010. "The Impact of Commodity Price Volatility on Resource Intensive Economies," Working Papers 1274, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ian Keay, 2007. "Resource Rents and their Impact on Institutional and Economic Development," Working Papers 1143, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Abhijit Sharma & Kelvin G Balcombe & Iain M Fraser, 2009. "Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 805-819.
    8. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    9. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.

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