IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qed/wpaper/1274.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Commodity Price Volatility on Resource Intensive Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Keay

Abstract

Commodity price volatility is bad for macroeconomic performance. Virtually all empirical studies that document this negative relationship rely on the estimation of aggregate growth equations using cross-section evidence drawn from the post-1970 era. This paper uses a simulation model based on the structure of a dynamic renewable resource model of optimal extraction to determine why commodity price volatility affects investment decisions, production levels, profitability, and ultimately long run growth. The Canadian forestry sector is used as a case study to assess the relative strength of each of these effects. Simulation exercises reveal that commodity price volatility shocks significantly reduce resource firms' equity prices and their demand for reproducible and natural capital. As a result of these changes in the firms' external financing costs and investment incentives, extraction costs rise, output levels and profits fall, and real GDP per capita growth slows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Keay, 2010. "The Impact of Commodity Price Volatility on Resource Intensive Economies," Working Papers 1274, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1274.pdf
    File Function: First version 2010
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    3. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    4. Neher,Philip A., 1990. "Natural Resource Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521311748, March.
    5. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    6. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    8. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Export growth and Canadian economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 133-145, January.
    9. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old-growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    10. Keay, Ian & Redish, Angela, 2004. "The micro-economic effects of financial market structure: evidence from 20th century North American steel firms," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 377-403, October.
    11. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    12. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    13. Inwood Kris & Stengos Thanasis, 1995. "REJOINDER Segmented Trend Models of Canadian Economic Growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 253-261, April.
    14. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Shocks And The Australian Economy Since Federation," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(2), pages 150-177, July.
    15. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    16. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2000. "International Comparisons of Real Product, 1820-1990: An Alternative Data Set," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-41, January.
    17. Edward J. Chambers & Donald F. Gordon, 1966. "Primary Products and Economic Growth: An Empirical Measurement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 315-315.
    18. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
    19. Ian Keay, 2009. "Resource Specialization and Economic Performance: A Canadian Case Study, 1970-2005," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-313, September.
    20. Denise Young, 1992. "Cost Specification and Firm Behaviour in a Hotelling Model of Resource Extraction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 41-59, February.
    21. Lewis, Frank D, 1975. "The Canadian Wheat Boom and Per Capita Income: New Estimates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1249-1257, December.
    22. Lederman, Daniel & Maloney, William F., 2003. "Trade structure and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3025, The World Bank.
    23. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    24. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
    25. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    26. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    27. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    29. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    30. Fogli, Alessandra, 2003. "Comment on: "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 125-131, January.
    31. Sadorsky, Perry & Henriques, Irene, 2001. "Multifactor risk and the stock returns of Canadian paper and forest products companies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 199-208, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price volatility; resource based growth; simulation modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.