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Terms of Trade Volatility, Government Spending Cyclicality, and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Brueckner
  • Francisco Carneiro

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real GDP per capita growth. Based on 5-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant adverse effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending; in countries where government spending is countercyclical terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2016. "Terms of Trade Volatility, Government Spending Cyclicality, and Economic Growth," CAMA Working Papers 2016-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-36
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-03/36_2016_brueckner_carneiro.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2017. "How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals," Growth Lab Working Papers 101, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    2. Godfrey J. Kweka, 2024. "Terms of trade volatility and tax revenue in Sub‐Saharan African countries," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 655-674, September.
    3. Moukpè Gniniguè & Essossinam Ali, 2022. "Migrant Remittances and Economic Growth in ECOWAS Countries: Does Digitalization Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2517-2542, October.
    4. Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.
    5. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    6. Obiakor, Rowland & Okwu, Andy & Akpa, Emeka, 2021. "Terms of Trade, Trade Openness and Government Spending in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 110977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vianna, Andre C. & Mollick, Andre V., 2018. "Government size and openness: Evidence from the commodity boom in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 318-328.
    8. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.

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