The elephant in Hotelling's room
This paper questions the assumption, commonly used in theoretical and policy research, that scarcity rents make up a large proportion of market prices for oil and coal. We show that the empirical literature, simple calculations of historical and future scarcity rent shares, and possible theoretical explanations all imply the same overall conclusions: that scarcity rents seem to have been marginal or non-existent historically; that they almost certainly do not dominate fossil resource prices today; and that there will be other factors shaping the prices in the upcoming decades. We therefore argue that using the scarcity rent as the main or only basis for policy or for explaining empirical outcomes is ill-advised.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Hoel, 2009.
"Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions,"
2009.1, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Michael Hoel, 2008. "Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2492, CESifo Group Munich.
- Grimaud, Andre & Rouge, Luc, 2003. "Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations: optimum, equilibrium and economic policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 433-453, March.
- Heal, Geoffrey & Barrow, Michael, 1981. "Empirical investigation of the long-term movement of resource prices : A preliminary report," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 95-103.
- Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1994. "The Optimal Time Path of a Carbon Tax," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 857-68, Supplemen.
- Smulders, Sjak & Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2012.
"Announcing climate policy: Can a green paradox arise without scarcity?,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 364-376.
- Sjak Smulders & Yacov Tsur & Amos Zemel, 2010. "Announcing Climate Policy: Can a Green Paradox Arise without Scarcity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3307, CESifo Group Munich.
- Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011.
"Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
- Denise Young, 1992. "Cost Specification and Firm Behaviour in a Hotelling Model of Resource Extraction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 41-59, February.
- Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo, 2001. "Economic growth and transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1379-1398, August.
- Farrow, Scott, 1985. "Testing the Efficiency of Extraction from a Stock Resource," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 452-87, June.
- Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 1989. "Interest rates and metal price movements: Further evidence," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 184-192, March.
- Lars Lindholt, 2005. "Beyond Kyoto: backstop technologies and endogenous prices on CO2 permits and fossil fuels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 2019-2036.
- Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008.
"Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: A supply side approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 19638, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- John Hartwick, 1976.
"Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources,"
220, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December.
- Teece, David J. & Sunding, David & Mosakowski, Elaine, 1993. "Natural resource cartels," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1131-1166 Elsevier.
- Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
- Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
- Heal, Geoffrey & Barrow, Michael, 1980. "The Relationship between Interest Rates and Metal Price Movements," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 161-81, January.
- Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, 09.
- M.A. Adelman and G.C. Watkins, 2008. "Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
- van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012.
"Is there really a green paradox?,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 342-363.
- Rick van der Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2010. "Is There Really a Green Paradox?," OxCarre Working Papers 035, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- Frederick Van der Ploeg & Cees A. Withagen, 2010. "Is There Really a Green Paradox?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2963, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gregory M. Ellis & Robert Halvorsen, 2002. "Estimation of Market Power in a Nonrenewable Resource Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 883-899, August.
- Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
- Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
- Corrado Di Maria & Sjak Smulders & Edwin van der Werf, 2008. "Absolute Abundance and Relative Scarcity: Announced Policy, Resource Extraction, and Carbon Emissions," Working Papers 2008.92, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4500307 is not listed on IDEAS
- Reyer Gerlagh, 2010.
"Too Much Oil,"
2010.14, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Halvorsen, Robert & Smith, Tim R, 1984. "On Measuring Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 954-64, October.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1973. "The Allocation of Energy Resources," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 529-576.
- Halvorsen, Robert & Smith, Tim R, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 123-40, February.
- Stollery, Kenneth R., 1983. "Mineral depletion with cost as the extraction limit: A model applied to the behavior of prices in the nickel industry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
- Groth, Christian & Schou, Poul, 2007. "Growth and non-renewable resources: The different roles of capital and resource taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 80-98, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7834-7838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.