IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/slueko/2012_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand

Author

Listed:
  • Hart, Rob

    (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of prices and quantities of non-renewable resources, carefully justifying our assumptions. Resource stocks are inhomogeneous, and there is endogenous directed technological change both in extraction and final-good production. The model explains stylized facts while simultaneously providing a framework for prediction; it yields analytical results in the baseline case, and may be developed to make empirical predictions about real resources. In the baseline case the economy passes through a series of phases: initially resource consumption is low; as technology improves, resource consumption rises and real resource price is constant; in the long run there is a transition to a b.g.p. on which resource consumption is constant and resource price tracks the wage.

Suggested Citation

  • Hart, Rob, 2012. "The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand," Working Paper Series 2012:01, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:slueko:2012_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.slu.se/Documents/externwebben/nl-fak/ekonomi/Working_papers/The_economics_of_natural_resources_Hart.R.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    3. Smulders, Sjak & de Nooij, Michiel, 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-79, February.
    4. Grimaud, Andre & Rouge, Luc, 2003. "Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations: optimum, equilibrium and economic policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 433-453, March.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 12, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    7. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    8. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    9. Hart, Rob, 2008. "The timing of taxes on CO2 emissions when technological change is endogenous," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 194-212, March.
    10. Managi, Shunsuke & Opaluch, James J. & Jin, Di & Grigalunas, Thomas A., 2004. "Technological change and depletion in offshore oil and gas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 388-409, March.
    11. Popp, David, 2006. "ENTICE-BR: The effects of backstop technology R&D on climate policy models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 188-222, March.
    12. Johnson, Manuel H. & Bell, Frederick W. & Bennett, James T., 1980. "Natural resource scarcity: Empirical evidence and public policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 256-271, September.
    13. John T. Cuddington & Diana L. Moss, 2001. "Technological Change, Depletion, and the U.S. Petroleum Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1135-1148, September.
    14. Chow, Gregory C., 1997. "Dynamic Economics: Optimization by the Lagrange Method," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101928.
    15. Groth, Christian & Schou, Poul, 2007. "Growth and non-renewable resources: The different roles of capital and resource taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 80-98, January.
    16. Schulze, William D., 1974. "The optimal use of non-renewable resources: The theory of extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-73, May.
    17. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
    18. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    19. Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2006. "Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use of Light in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 139-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregor Schwerhoff & Martin Stuermer, 2015. "Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth," Working Papers 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Stuermer, Martin & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2013, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    2. André, Francisco J. & Smulders, Sjak, 2014. "Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-39.
    3. Ryo Horii & Masako Ikefuji, 2014. "Environment and Growth," DSSR Discussion Papers 21, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Hou, Zheng & Roseta-Palma, Catarina & Ramalho, Joaquim José dos Santos, 2021. "Does directed technological change favor energy? Firm-level evidence from Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Martin Stürmer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2012. "Non-Renewable but Inexhaustible – Resources in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    6. Oscar Afonso & Ana Catarina Afonso, 2015. "Endogenous Growth Effects of Environmental Policies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 607-629, December.
    7. David I. Stern, 2010. "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth," CCEP Working Papers 0310, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Färnstrand Damsgaard, Erika, 2012. "Exhaustible resources, technology choice and industrialization of developing countries," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-294.
    9. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth Theory and “Green Growthâ€," OxCarre Working Papers 135, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Hart, Rob, 2013. "Directed technological change and factor shares," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 77-80.
    11. Beatrix Gaitan & Terry Roe, 2012. "International Trade, Exhaustible-Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 72-93, January.
    12. Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
    13. Smulders, Sjak & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Green growth -- lessons from growth theory," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6230, The World Bank.
    14. Bretschger, Lucas & Smulders, Sjak, 2012. "Sustainability and substitution of exhaustible natural resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 536-549.
    15. Kolstad, Charles D., 2000. "Energy and Depletable Resources: Economics and Policy, 1973-1998," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-305, May.
    16. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    18. Fabre, Adrien & Fodha, Mouez & Ricci, Francesco, 2020. "Mineral resources for renewable energy: Optimal timing of energy production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Grimaud, André & Rouge, Luc, 2014. "Carbon sequestration, economic policies and growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-331.
    20. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Directed technological change; Natural resources; Hotelling rule.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:slueko:2012_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iesluse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Hillerius (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iesluse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.