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Fueling Growth when Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency

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  • Francisco J. André
  • Sjak Smulders

Abstract

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco J. André & Sjak Smulders, 2012. "Fueling Growth when Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency," CESifo Working Paper Series 3977, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3977
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth theory and ‘green growth’," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 423-446.
    2. Julie Rozenberg & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Stephane Hallegatte, 2017. "Instrument Choice and Stranded Assets in the Transition to Clean Capital," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 98039, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2014. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," CIRED Working Papers hal-01057241, HAL.
    4. Simone Marsiglio & Alberto Ansuategi & Maria Carmen Gallastegui, 2016. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Structural Change Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 265-288, February.
    5. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    6. Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    7. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2014. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Working Papers hal-01057241, HAL.
    8. Casey, Gregory, 2017. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," MPRA Paper 76416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-renewable resources; energy; economic growth; innovation; directed technical change;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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