IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v69y2014icp18-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • André, Francisco J.
  • Smulders, Sjak

Abstract

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Suggested Citation

  • André, Francisco J. & Smulders, Sjak, 2014. "Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:18-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292113001359
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    3. Sinclair, Peter J N, 1992. "High Does Nothing and Rising Is Worse: Carbon Taxes Should Keep Declining to Cut Harmful Emissions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(1), pages 41-52, March.
    4. Smulders, Sjak & de Nooij, Michiel, 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-79, February.
    5. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2011. "The optimal depletion of exhaustible resources: A complete characterization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 612-636, September.
    6. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    7. Grimaud, Andre & Rouge, Luc, 2003. "Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations: optimum, equilibrium and economic policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 433-453, March.
    8. Edward Barbier, 1999. "Endogenous Growth and Natural Resource Scarcity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 51-74, July.
    9. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1984. "The Role of Energy in Productivity Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 11-26.
    11. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Michel Moreaux & Mabel Tidball, 2008. "Ordering the Extraction of Polluting Nonrenewable Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1128-1144, June.
    12. Chermak Janie M. & Patrick Robert H., 1995. "A Well-Based Cost Function and the Economics of Exhaustible Resources: The Case of Natural Gas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 174-189, March.
    13. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2011. "The optimal depletion of exhaustible resources: A complete characterization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 612-636, September.
    14. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    15. Hall, Darwin C. & Hall, Jane V., 1984. "Concepts and measures of natural resource scarcity with a summary of recent trends," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-379, December.
    16. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    17. Eric Neumayer, 2013. "Weak versus Strong Sustainability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14993.
    18. Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2005. "Economics of Natural Resource Scarcity: The State of the Debate," RFF Working Paper Series dp-05-14, Resources for the Future.
    19. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
    20. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Too much coal, too little oil," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 62-77.
    22. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    23. Johnson, Manuel H. & Bell, Frederick W. & Bennett, James T., 1980. "Natural resource scarcity: Empirical evidence and public policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 256-271, September.
    24. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    25. Christian Groth & Poul Schou, 2002. "Can non-renewable resources alleviate the knife-edge character of endogenous growth?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 386-411, July.
    26. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    27. Cleveland, Cutler J., 2005. "Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 769-782.
    28. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2008. "Hicks meets Hotelling: the direction of technical change in capital–resource economies," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 691-717, December.
    29. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    30. David Popp, 2002. "Induced Innovation and Energy Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 160-180, March.
    31. Groth, Christian & Schou, Poul, 2007. "Growth and non-renewable resources: The different roles of capital and resource taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 80-98, January.
    32. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    33. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo, 2001. "Economic growth and transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1379-1398, August.
    35. Marie N. Fagan, 1997. "Resource Depletion and Technical Change: Effects on U.S. Crude Oil Finding Costs from 1977 to 1994," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 91-105.
    36. Sue Wing, Ian, 2008. "Explaining the declining energy intensity of the U.S. economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 21-49, January.
    37. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    38. Prywes, Menahem, 1986. "A nested CES approach to capital-energy substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 22-28, January.
    39. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2020. "Instrument choice and stranded assets in the transition to clean capital," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, 2018. "Green Growth and Taste Heterogeneity," IBS Working Papers 07/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    3. Julie Rozenberg & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Stephane Hallegatte, 2017. "Instrument Choice and Stranded Assets in the Transition to Clean Capital," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 98039, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    5. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Elena Verdolini & Massimo Tavoni, 2015. "Directed Technological Change and Energy Efficiency Improvements," Working Papers 2015.78, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Carolyn Fischer, 2023. "Green Innovation and Economic Growth in a North–South Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 615-648, August.
    7. Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan & Verdolini, Elena & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Induced technological change and energy efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 17-32.
    8. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Carolyn Fischer, 2018. "Green Innovation And Economic Growth In A North-South Model," IBS Working Papers 10/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    9. Barreto, Raul A., 2018. "Fossil fuels, alternative energy and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 196-220.
    10. Hou, Zheng & Roseta-Palma, Catarina & Ramalho, Joaquim José dos Santos, 2021. "Does directed technological change favor energy? Firm-level evidence from Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth Theory and “Green Growthâ€," OxCarre Working Papers 135, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    15. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    16. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2021. "Directed Technical Change in Labor and Environmental Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 571-597, August.
    17. Antosiewicz, Marek & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2021. "Short- and long-run dynamics of energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    19. Kerner, Philip & Wendler, Tobias, 2022. "Convergence in resource productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Simone Marsiglio & Alberto Ansuategi & Maria Carmen Gallastegui, 2016. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Structural Change Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 265-288, February.
    21. Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, 2019. "Directed Technical Change, Environmental Sustainability, and Population Growth," Discussion Papers 19-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    22. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 2021. "Opimal Unilateral Climate Policy with Carbon Leakage at the Extensive and the Intensive Margin," CESifo Working Paper Series 9185, CESifo.
    23. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2018. "Competing Land Uses and Fossil Fuel, Optimal Energy Conversion Rates During the Transition Toward a Green Economy Under a Pollution Stock Constraint," TSE Working Papers 18-981, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Hart, Rob, 2012. "The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand," Working Paper Series 2012:01, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    3. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth Theory and “Green Growthâ€," OxCarre Working Papers 135, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Jin, Wei, 2021. "Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. David I. Stern, 2010. "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth," CCEP Working Papers 0310, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Bretschger, Lucas & Smulders, Sjak, 2012. "Sustainability and substitution of exhaustible natural resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 536-549.
    7. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2022. "Poverty and sustainable development around the world during transition periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Hou, Zheng & Roseta-Palma, Catarina & Ramalho, Joaquim José dos Santos, 2021. "Does directed technological change favor energy? Firm-level evidence from Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    10. Boyce, John R., 2019. "The paradox of value, directed technical change, and the relative abundance of the chemical elements," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Magalhães, Manuela & Afonso, Óscar, 2017. "A multi-sector growth model with technology diffusion and networks," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1340-1359.
    12. Ryo Horii & Masako Ikefuji, 2014. "Environment and Growth," DSSR Discussion Papers 21, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    13. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2006. "The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies," MPRA Paper 1040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. John Boyce, "undated". "Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources," Working Papers 2013-04, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
    15. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    16. Luise Röpke, 2015. "Essays on the Integration of New Energy Sources into Existing Energy Systems," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58.
    17. Hori, Takeo & Yamagami, Hiroaki, 2014. "Intellectual property rights protection in the presence of exhaustible resources," MPRA Paper 58064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Smulders, Sjak & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Green growth -- lessons from growth theory," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6230, The World Bank.
    19. Hernando Zuleta, 2008. "Energy Saving Innovations, Non-Exhaustible Sources of Energy and Long-Run: What Would Happen if we Run Out of Oil?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, November.
    20. Kollenbach, Gilbert, 2015. "Abatement, R&D and growth with a pollution ceiling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable resources; Energy; Economic growth; Innovation; Directed technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:18-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.