Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion
This paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called "terminal price" of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost of extraction, cumulative production, and proven reserves. The predicted terminal prices seem sensible for a range of parameters and variables, as illustrated by the sensitivity analysis. Using the terminal price of oil, we calculate the time to depletion, and determine the extraction and price profiles over the life-time of the resource. The extraction profiles generated seem to be in line with the actual production and the predicted prices are generally in line with those currently observed.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291753-0237|
|Order Information:||Web: http://ordering.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/subs.asp?ref=1753-0237&doi=10.1111/%28ISSN%291753-0237|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cavalcanti, T.V.de V. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2011.
"Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
1112, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, 09.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/12, .
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1331, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
- Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "Gains to Producers from the Cartelization of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 238-251, May.
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996.
"Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
- Salih Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 318., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hnyilicza, Esteban & Pindyck, Robert S., 1976. "Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel : The case of OPEC," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 139-154, August.
- M. A. Adelman, 1985. "An Unstable World Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 17-22.
- Mead, Walter J, 1979. "The Performance of Government in Energy Regulations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 352-356, May.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
- Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
- Farzin, Y H, 1992. "The Time Path of Scarcity Rent in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 813-830, July.
- Favero, Carlo A & Pesaran, M Hashem & Sharma, Sunil, 1994. "A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 95-112, Suppl. De.
- Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets; Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 06/62, .
- Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1982. "Exploration and Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1279-1290, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:162-193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.