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World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases: An Intertemporal Analysis

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  • Marion, Nancy Peregrim
  • Svensson, Lars E O

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of OPEC price increases on the welfare of a group of oil-importing industrial countries. It also studies how taxes or subsidies on oil imports or capital flows could alter the group's welfare. The analysis is conducted using a general-equilibrium model that describes the behavior of two actors, OPEC and the oil-importing bloc called Industria. The analysis is explicitly intertemporal and takes into account endogenous changes in saving, investment and employment.We show that Industria's welfare is affected not only by direct oil terms of trade effect, but also by changes in the world rate of interest(intertemporal terms of trade effects) and, for rigid wages, changes in employment. Thus Industria gains from the intertemporal terms of trade effect if it is a net borrower and the world rate of interest falls. Precise conditions for whether the world rate of interest falls or rises are given.We also show that Industria may gain from subsidizing oil imports rather than taxing them, in particular if wages are rigid, and that it may gain from restricting international capital mobility.
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  • Marion, Nancy Peregrim & Svensson, Lars E O, 1984. "World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases: An Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 86-102, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:36:y:1984:i:1:p:86-102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifobei:77 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. van der Meijden, Gerard & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "International capital markets, oil producers and the Green Paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 275-297.
    3. repec:eee:jeeman:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:100-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Second-best carbon taxation in the global economy: The Green Paradox and carbon leakage revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 85-105.
    5. Van Wijnbergen, Sweden, 1986. "On fiscal deficits, the real exchange rate and the world rate of interest," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1013-1023, October.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2015. "Unilateral Carbon Taxation in the Global Economy: The Green Paradox and carbon leakage revisted," OxCarre Working Papers 157, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1984. "Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 15-31, February.
    8. Haaparanta, Pertti & Kontulainen, Jarmo, 1989. "Real exchange rate as an unobservable variable," Research Discussion Papers 13/1989, Bank of Finland.
    9. Dominick Salvatore & Greg Winczewski, 1990. "World oil prices and O.E.C.D. trade balance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-106, February.

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