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World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases: An Intertemporal Analysis

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  • Nancy Peregrim Marion
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of OPEC price increases on the welfare of a group of oil-importing industrial countries. It also studies how taxes or subsidies on oil imports or capital flows could alter the group's welfare. The analysis is conducted using a general-equilibrium model that describes the behavior of two actors, OPEC and the oil-importing bloc called Industria. The analysis is explicitly intertemporal and takes into account endogenous changes in saving, investment and employment.We show that Industria's welfare is affected not only by direct oil terms of trade effect, but also by changes in the world rate of interest(intertemporal terms of trade effects) and, for rigid wages, changes in employment. Thus Industria gains from the intertemporal terms of trade effect if it is a net borrower and the world rate of interest falls. Precise conditions for whether the world rate of interest falls or rises are given.We also show that Industria may gain from subsidizing oil imports rather than taxing them, in particular if wages are rigid, and that it may gain from restricting international capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases: An Intertemporal Analysis," NBER Working Papers 1074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
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    1. van der Meijden, Gerard & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "International capital markets, oil producers and the Green Paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 275-297.
    2. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Second-best carbon taxation in the global economy: The Green Paradox and carbon leakage revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 85-105.
    3. Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1984. "Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 15-31, February.
    4. Dominick Salvatore & Greg Winczewski, 1990. "World oil prices and O.E.C.D. trade balance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-106, February.
    5. Haaparanta, Pertti & Kontulainen, Jarmo, 1989. "Real exchange rate as an unobservable variable," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/1989, Bank of Finland.
    6. Habla, Wolfgang, 2018. "Climate policy under factor mobility: A (differentiated) case for capital taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 100-124.
    7. Habla, Wolfgang, 2016. "The Green Paradox and Interjurisdictional Competition across Space and Time," Working Papers in Economics 668, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1989_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Van Wijnbergen, Sweden, 1986. "On fiscal deficits, the real exchange rate and the world rate of interest," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1013-1023, October.
    11. Haaparanta, Pertti & Kontulainen, Jarmo, 1989. "Real exchange rate as an unobservable variable," Research Discussion Papers 13/1989, Bank of Finland.

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