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Income effects on the trade balance in small open economies

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  • Dragan Miljkovic
  • Rodney Paul
  • Roberto Garcia

Abstract

The objective is to determine the causes of the countercyclicality of the trade balance in five small open economies, namely Austria, France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. In order to investigate the role of permanent and temporary changes in income in the determination of the trade balance, Blanchard-Quah variance decomposition procedure is applied. The results of analysis support the conclusion that transitory income shocks are major reasons for the change in the trade balance, and that negative correlation between the trade balance and income is primarily due to transitory shocks. Thus, these results are more consistent with intertemporal models with the dichotomous view in which the aggregate demand shocks are responsible for cyclical variations in the trade balance and income and aggregate supply is responsible for the long-run growth of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dragan Miljkovic & Rodney Paul & Roberto Garcia, 2000. "Income effects on the trade balance in small open economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 327-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:327-333
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2010. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 1067-1076.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani--Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Jia Xu, 2013. "Exchange--rate volatility and US--Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2629-2651, June.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2010. "How sensitive is commodity trade flows between US and India to currency depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 267-277.
    5. Marcela Veselkova & Julius Horvath, 2008. "Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(2), pages 241-249, September.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2006. "How sensitive are Malaysia's bilateral trade flows to depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1279-1286.

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