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Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

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  • Kubo, Koji

Abstract

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 388, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper388
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. In-Bong Ha & Bong-Soo Lee & Chongcheul Cheong, 2007. "What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997? *: Weak Fundamentals or Self-fulfilling Expectations ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-206, June.
    3. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "What Explains Real and Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations?: Evidence from SVAR Analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2803-2815.
    4. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1997. "Accounting for real and nominal exchange rate movements in the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 233-254, April.
    5. Sean TURNELL, 2011. "Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 136-153, June.
    6. Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980-1998," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-563.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
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    10. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:55:y:2010:i:04:n:s0217590810004012 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Seiha Ok & Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Real Shock Or Nominal Shock? Exchange Rate Movements In Cambodia And Lao Pdr," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(04), pages 685-703.
    12. Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2008. "Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 08/199, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; Foreign exchange; Real and nominal effective exchange rates; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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