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Real Shock or Nominal Shock? Exchange Rate Movements in Cambodia and Lao PDR

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This paper discusses a primary factor responsible for exchange rate fluctuations of the Cambodian riel and the Laotian kip against the US dollar. The dynamic effects of real and nominal shocks are examined through applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model of real and nominal exchange rates under the assumption of the long-run neutrality of nominal shocks on real exchange rates. This approach allows us to decompose exchange rate movements into two components, real and nominal factors, in order to identify how these factors influence exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical analysis demonstrates that real shocks in direction of depreciation lead to real and nominal depreciation, while nominal shocks induce long-run nominal depreciation but real appreciation in the short-run.

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  • Seiha Ok & Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Real Shock or Nominal Shock? Exchange Rate Movements in Cambodia and Lao PDR," Working Papers EMS_2010_05, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2010_05
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    3. Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 388, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real and nominal exchange rates; Real and nominal shocks; SVAR analysis; Cambodia and Lao PDR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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