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Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models

Author

Listed:
  • Ilir Miteza

    (University of Michigan – Dearborn)

  • Altin Tanku

    (Bank of Albania)

  • Ilir Vika

    (Bank of Albania)

Abstract

The choice of a foreign exchange regime hinges primarily on whether the real exchange rate acts as a shock absorber or reverberator for macroeconomic fluctuations. This policy choice is considered central especially prior to joining currency areas such as the Eurozone. We investigate whether Albania’s current floating exchange rate regime contributes to macroeconomic stability, or generates volatility. Using three different structural vector autoregression techniques, and an expanded five-variable model, we show that the real exchange rate has played a shock absorbing role, buffering the Albanian economy primarily from real demand shocks. The analysis reveals that monetary shocks and supply-side shocks have modest contributions in real exchange rate volatility. This evidence in favor of the “shock absorbing” view of exchange rates lends support to Albania’s policy choice of a flexible exchange rate system. If in future Albania considers joining a currency area, its monetary authority will need to pay attention to real currency misalignments as well as the availability and flexibility of alternative adjustment mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10644-022-09471-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-022-09471-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Structural vector autoregression; Cointegration; Bayesian SVAR; Albania; Economies in transition; CEE countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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