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Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence

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  • Katie Farrant
  • Gert Peersman

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression framework for the United Kingdom, euro area, Japan and Canada versus the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark conventional approach of Clarida and Gali based on long-run zero restrictions. Although the restrictions are derived from the same theoretical model, the results are strikingly different. In contrast to the benchmark model, an important role for nominal shocks in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Katie Farrant & Gert Peersman, 2005. "Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence," Bank of England working papers 269, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:269
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Artis, 2008. "What do we now know about currency unions?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 13-29.
    2. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.
    5. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-641, September.
    7. Sa, Filipa & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2010. "Monetary policy, capital inflows and the housing boom," Bank of England working papers 405, Bank of England.
    8. repec:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:193-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. P. Jacob, 2010. "Disaggregating Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Structural Approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/655, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    11. Natasa Erjavec & Boris Cota & Sasa Jaksic, 2012. "Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 395-412.
    12. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2014. "Phillips curve shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations: SVAR evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    14. Timo Bettendorf & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 617-653, March.
    15. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Francis Breedon & Thórarinn Pétursson & Andrew Rose, 2012. "Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 421-445, July.
    17. Agnieszka Stazka, 2006. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe – Temporary or Permanent?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1876, CESifo.
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    19. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
    20. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    21. Elekdag, Selim & Han, Fei, 2015. "What drives credit growth in emerging Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    22. G. Peersman, 2005. "The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/286, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    23. Hyeon-seung Huh & Won Soon Kwon, 2015. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G-7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 715-737, September.
    24. Philip R Lane & Livio Stracca, 2018. "Can appreciation be expansionary? Evidence from the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(94), pages 225-264.
    25. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2009. "Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?," Economics wp43, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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