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Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence

  • Katie Farrant
  • Gert Peersman

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression framework for the United Kingdom, euro area, Japan and Canada versus the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark conventional approach of Clarida and Gali based on long-run zero restrictions. Although the restrictions are derived from the same theoretical model, the results are strikingly different. In contrast to the benchmark model, an important role for nominal shocks in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations is found.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2005/WP269.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 269.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:269
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  1. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Tao Wang, 2004. "China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 04/18, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 328-355, September.
  7. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Javier Vallés & José Viñals, 1996. "Do Exchange Rate Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9626, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse- Response Analysis," Economics Working Papers 92-201, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Jan Gottschalk & Ashok Bhundia, 2003. "Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/252, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
  14. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Michael Artis & Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "The Exchange Rate -a Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 38, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  16. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20001, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  19. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
  20. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  21. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  22. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
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