Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?
The article uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model under some well agreed-on long-run neutrality assumption to identify relative supply, relative demand, and relative nominal shocks in Euroland vs. the UK. The empirical results indicate that most of the variation in relative output is caused by supply shocks while the shocks driving the real ECU exchange rate are mainly non-monetary demand shocks in nature. Therefore, the loss of the exchange rate as a shock absorber will not be great for the UK.
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