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The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate

  • G. PEERSMAN

    ()

This paper shows how sign restrictions can be used to identify symmetric and asymmetric shocks in a simple two-country structural VAR. Specifically, the e??ects of symmetric and asymmetric supply, demand and monetary policy shocks as well as pure exchange rate shocks are estimated. The results can be used to deal with two issues. First, it is possible to estimate the relative importance of symmetric, asymmetric and pure exchange rate shocks across two countries or areas, which provides information about the degree of business cycle synchronization. Second, it is also possible to evaluate the relative importance of these shocks in determining exchange rate fluctuations, which can deliver answers to questions like ’Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or source of shocks?’. Evidence is provided for the UK versus the Euro area and compared with the US as a benchmark.

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File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_05_286.pdf
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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/286.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/286
Contact details of provider: Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent
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Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb

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  1. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1994. "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry A Comparison of Europe and the United States," International Finance 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
  2. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
  6. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  7. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  8. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
  9. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  10. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
  12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  13. repec:fth:inseep:9516 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  15. Erkel-Rousse, Hélène & Melitz, Jacques, 1995. "New Empirical Evidence on the Costs of European Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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