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What Do We Now Know About Currency Unions?

  • Artis, Michael J

The paper presents the text of a lecture given at the Bank of England in December 2005 as the first in a series of lectures in memory of John Flemming. It provides a personal view of what the profession has learnt about currency unions as a result of the establishment and operation of the European Monetary Union. It argues that the salience of business cycle concurrence as a criterion for participation is probably less than used to be understood and for some countries borders on irrelevance. In any case the effects of union upon business cycle concurrence are themselves not obvious. It also appears that, after a period in which very large estimates of the trade effect of currency unions were widespread, more modest estimates are in order. The most unlooked-for effect is probably that which has occurred in the financial markets; country premia within the EMU are very small, offering a means for insurance against asymmetric shocks. Finally, the lessons of another, local, experiment in currency union is examined. But the useful lessons from this experiment (Ecco L’Euro) are found to be limited.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5677.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5677
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  1. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2005. "Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 7-41.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
  5. Artis, Michael J & Ehrmann, Michael, 2000. "The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Vincent Labhard & Michael Sawicki, 2006. "International and intranational consumption risk sharing: the evidence for the United Kingdom and OECD," Bank of England working papers 302, Bank of England.
  11. Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Currency Unions," Scholarly Articles 4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
  13. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  14. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  15. Mario J Crucini & Gregory D Hess, 1999. "International and Intranational Risk Sharing," CESifo Working Paper Series 227, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Charles Engel, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates And the Implications for Exchange-Rate Policy: A Survey Of a Few Recent New Open-Economy..," NBER Working Papers 8725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  19. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Optimum-Currency-Area Paradoxes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 536-551, 08.
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