IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/epr/enepwp/017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is Not So Large

Author

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the euro adoption on commercial transactions of EMU countries. We refer to the abundant gravity-model literature about the effect of Currency Unions on trade originated by Rose (2000). We adapt this kind of modelling to the specific case of the European Monetary Union drawing from former literature some guidelines summed up as follows: distinction of "pure" common currency from exchange rate volatility effect; selection of sample of countries strictly focussed on EMU economies; consideration of time as well as space dimension; inclusion of other political factors promoting integration. We add to these provisions the observation that the panel estimation of the gravity equation must be dynamic, because EMU is a young phenomenon; short run effects, like trade persistence, can hence play a crucial role. Our main finding is that the euro adoption has had a positive but not exorbitant impact on bilateral trade of European countries (the estimated percentage increase ranges between 2.6 and 6.3%), much lower than that derivable from Rose's estimates referred to a larger and heterogeneous set of countries (providing a trade increase following the adoption of a common currency by as much as 200%). Our results refer to short-run impacts; long-run effects could be stronger (but, in our opinion, not by the order of a doubling or a trebling effect indicated in the existing literature on currency unions), particularly if the structural change implied by the new currency regime (a fraction of foreign trade is potentially equivalent to domestic trade) becomes completely internalised in the perception and the behaviour of Euroland citizens.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio De Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is Not So Large," Economics Working Papers 017, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  • Handle: RePEc:epr:enepwp:017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.enepri.org/Publications/WP017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 859-887.
    2. Bernstein, Jeffrey I. & Mohnen, Pierre, 1998. "International R&D spillovers between U.S. and Japanese R&D intensive sectors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 315-338.
    3. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    4. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1996. "Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 251-278.
    5. Bottazzi, Laura & Peri, Giovanni, 2003. "Innovation and spillovers in regions: Evidence from European patent data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 687-710, August.
    6. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-555.
    7. Ana Goicolea & José A. Herce & Juan J. De Lucio, "undated". "Regional integration and growth: The Spanish case," Working Papers 98-14, FEDEA.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mª Luz García de la Vega & José A. Herce, "undated". "Integration and Growth in the EU. The Role of Trade," Working Papers 2000-20, FEDEA.
    10. Marcus H. Miller & John E. Spencer, 1977. "The Static Economic Effects of the UK joining the EEC: A General Equilibrium Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 71-93.
    11. Grinols, Earl L., 1984. "A thorn in the lion's paw: Has britain paid too much for Common Market membership?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 271-293, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2013. "The role of cross-sectional heterogeneity for magnitude and timing of the euro's trade effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 48-74.
    3. Francis Breedon & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2004. " Out in the cold? Iceland’s trade performance outside the EU," Economics wp26_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Costa-i-Font, Joan, 2010. "Regional single currency effects on bilateral trade with the European Union," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53292, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Joan Costa-i-Font, 2010. "Regional Single Currency Effects on Bilateral Trade with the European Union," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 26, European Institute, LSE.
    6. Jaroslav Vostatek, 2011. "The Role of Governance in Pension Systems," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 5(2), pages 106-125.
    7. Petr Gocev, 2011. "Prospects of Adopting the Euro in the Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 5(2), pages 177-185.
    8. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2007. "Price convergence in the European car market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 241-250.
    9. Karel Lacina, 2011. "Remarks to the Development of Public Administration from the Concept of ½Government½ to the Concept of ½Governance½," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 5(2), pages 126-147.
    10. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2010. "The euro's trade effect under cross-sectional heterogeneity and stochastic resistance," Kiel Working Papers 1631, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Matevz, Meze, 2009. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s effect on (international) trade: the case of Slovenia before euro adoption," MPRA Paper 17445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Liu, Yi Yun & Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert D., 2006. "The Impact of the Euro on New Zealand’s Bilateral Trade with the European Union," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(3), pages 329-354.
    13. Ladislav Prusa, 2011. "Public Governance, Social Services and Social Assistance Benefits," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 5(2), pages 166-176.
    14. Michael Diederich, 2011. "Corporate Governance in Germany," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 5(2), pages 148-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral; Economic Integration; Dynamic Panel Data.;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epr:enepwp:017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CEPS). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eneprea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.