Out in the cold? Iceland’s trade performance outside the EU
Although entering a currency union involves both costs and benefits, an increasing body of research is finding that the benefits – in terms of international trade creation – are remarkably large. For example, Rose (2000) suggests that countries can up to triple their trade by joining a currency union. If true the impact on trade, income and welfare should Iceland join EMU could be enormous. However, by focussing simply on EMU rather than the broad range of currency unions studied by Rose, we find that the trade impact of EMU is smaller – but still statistically significant and economically important. Our findings suggest that the Iceland's trade with other EMU countries could increase by about 60% and that the trade-to-GDP ratio could rise by 12 percentage points should Iceland join the EU and EMU. This trade boost could consequently raise GDP per capita by roughly 4%. These effects would be even larger if the three current EMU outs (Denmark, Sweden and the UK) were also to enter EMU.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.sedlabanki.is/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000.
"Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
- J. Ernesto L�pez-C�rdova and Chris Meissner., 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-118, University of California at Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001.
"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income,"
Working Paper Series
rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
- Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002.
4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2000.
"Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
8043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 434-456, 04.
- Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2001. "Closed and open economy models of business cycles with marked-up and sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994.
"How Wide is the Border?,"
NBER Working Papers
4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H., 1995. "How Wide is the Border?," Papers 4-95-16, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," Research Working Paper 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Silvana Tenreyro & Robert J. Barro, 2002.
"Economic effects of currency unions,"
02-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 1996.
"Does Inflation Matter for Growth?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brealey, R. A. & Kaplanis, E. C., 1996. "The determination of foreign banking location," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 577-597, August.
- Emerson, Michael & Gros, Daniel & Italianer, Alexander & ,, 1992. "One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773245, July.
- Paul Grauwe & Frauke Skudelny, 2000. "The impact of EMU on trade flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 381-402, 09.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
- Sergio De Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is Not So Large," Economics Working Papers 017, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
- Neumeyer, P.A., 1995.
"Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effect of a Monetary Union,"
DELTA Working Papers
95-27, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003.
"The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
- repec:tpr:qjecon:v:118:y:2003:i:2:p:359-407 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andersen, Torben M. & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 2003. "Measuring Globalization," IZA Discussion Papers 817, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
- Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2002.
"The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939,"
NBER Working Papers
9318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp26_thorarinn. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Central Bank of Iceland)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.