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Efectos de la unión monetaria sobre el comercio internacional: elementos de juicio iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea

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  • Alejandro Micco
  • Ernesto H. Stein
  • Guillermo Luis Ordoñez

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo calculamos los efectos iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea (UME) en el comercio internacional. Empleamos un conjunto de datos de panel que incluye la información más actualizada sobre el comercio internacional de 22 países desarrollados, desde 1992 hasta 2002. Durante ese período, 12 países europeos se incorporaron formalmente a una unión monetaria. Se trata de un acontecimiento único que nos permite estudiar los efectos de la unión monetaria entre un grupo relativamente homogéneo de países industrializados. Hallamos, controlando una serie de otros factores, que el efecto de la UME sobre el comercio bilateral entre países miembros varía entre 5% y 10%, comparado con el comercio entre todos los demás pares de países, y entre 9% y 20%, comparado con el comercio entre países que no pertenecen a la UME. Además, no hallamos pruebas de desviación del comercio. En cualquier caso, nuestros resultados sugieren que la unión monetaria hace aumentar el comercio no sólo con los países de la UME, sino también con el resto del mundo.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "Efectos de la unión monetaria sobre el comercio internacional: elementos de juicio iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea," Research Department Publications 4340, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4340
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