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Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU

The objective of this paper is first to review the use that has been made of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory in the European Monetary Union (EMU) context. Second, to look at some of its predictions in that respect. And third, to appraise some of the new theories - or speculations - that have arisen, partly as a result of the confrontation of the theory with the data. This is an area in which politics are very important; they play an important role in the reception and interpretation of positive work. Tentative ideas and speculative hypotheses acquire the aura of accomplished fact, whilst a single empirical illustration can be given the status of a many-times confirmed demonstration. This paper tries to be more careful in these remarks. Whilst history offers some instructive lessons, as illustrated for example in the work of Bordo and Jonung (1999), the fact is that in most relevant respects EMU represents an unparalleled experiment, with corresponding difficulties for empirical work.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 69.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 29 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:69
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  1. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-078, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G. & Roubini, N., 1992. "Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsence in the Treaty of Maastricht," Papers 674, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," Scholarly Articles 11129183, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
  5. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  11. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  12. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  14. Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
  15. Hossein Samiei & Zenon Kontolemis G., 2000. "The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry," IMF Working Papers 00/210, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Artis, Michael J & Ehrmann, Michael, 2000. "The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  18. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Breitung, Jörg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2000. "Common cycles: A frequency domain approach," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,99, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  22. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1994. "A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 337-57, November.
  23. Artis, Michael J & Kohler, Marion & Melitz, Jacques, 1998. "Trade and the Number of Optimum Currency Areas in the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 1926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:111:y:1996:i:4:p:1081-1110 is not listed on IDEAS
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