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The Shrinking Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union – A Beta Regression Approach

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  • João Silvestre
  • António Mendonça
  • José Passos

Abstract

The endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria has been widely studied since Frankel and Rose (1998) seminal paper. Literature normally suggests that there is a positive relationship between trade and business cycles correlation. This paper develops work on this subject (Silvestre and Mendonça, 2007) where we confirm this hypothesis in euro area countries and UE-15 for 1967-2003 period using OLS and 2SLS estimates. However, we also find then that trade influence on cycles synchronization diminished in the last years. Now our goal was precisely to evaluate this question. Using a non-linear model based on Beta distribution in the same sample, we concluded that trade has a decreasing marginal effect on business cycles correlation. This result shows that trade flows are important in the first stages of economic integration, but become less important as trade intensity increases. Other factors must then be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • João Silvestre & António Mendonça & José Passos, 2007. "The Shrinking Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union – A Beta Regression Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/22, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp222007
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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
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    5. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    8. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo.
    9. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    10. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    11. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    13. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Paul De Grauwe & Wim Vanhaverbeke, 2014. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 8, pages 231-252, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck & Jakub Janus, 2013. "Aggregate Demand Disturbances in the Visegrad Group and the Eurozone," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 1(3), pages 7-19.
    2. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Bilateral Trade and SEE–Eurozone Countries Growth Rate Alignment," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(2 (Summer), pages 137-155.
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    4. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    6. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Structural Similarity as a Determinant of Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: A Robust Analysis," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union (EMU); Business Cycles Correlation; Optimum Currency Areas; International Trade; Beta Regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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