IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v13y2007i1p1-1810.1007-s11294-006-9056-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Some Evidence from the European Union and Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • João Silvestre
  • António Mendonça

Abstract

Observing the statistical relationship between business cycles correlation and trade intensity in the European Union, euro zone, and the Portuguese economy, we conclude that there is, in general, a positive effect that supports the endogeneity argument proposed by Frankel and Rose (The Economic Journal 108(449):pp. 1009–1025, 1998 ). However, if we analyse this relationship in sub-periods – 1967–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1992, and 1993–2003 – we conclude that endogeneity hypothesis just hold in the first two, although the correlations are increasing. This could mean that, after the Single European Act in 1986, other forces beyond trade are contributing to business cycle synchronization. The Portuguese business cycle correlation with the European Union and the Euro zone had also increased in these four decades, despite the fact that endogeneity hypothesis is at a 90 percent confidence level. We also analyse the bilateral relationships between the Portuguese economy and the other European Union countries and find that the endogeneity is confirmed in just four cases: Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, and UK. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • João Silvestre & António Mendonça, 2007. "The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Some Evidence from the European Union and Portugal," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:1-18:10.1007/s11294-006-9056-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-006-9056-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-006-9056-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-006-9056-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2002. "Self-validating optimum currency areas," Staff Reports 152, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    4. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    5. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Paul De Grauwe & Wim Vanhaverbeke, 2014. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 8, pages 231-252, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Herbert Buscher & Hubert Gabrisch, 2012. "The synchronization of wage dynamics across EMU members. A test of the endogeneity hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 327-340, August.
    2. Chrysost Bangake & Aram Belhadj & Nabil Jedlane, 2007. "Towards Maghreb Monetary Unification: What does the Theory and History Tell Us?," Post-Print halshs-00366757, HAL.
    3. João Rebelo Barbosa & Rui Henrique Alves, 2011. "The Euro Area Ten Years after Its Creation: (Divergent) Competitiveness and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 605-629, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mendonça, António & Silvestre, João & Passos, José, 2011. "The shrinking endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union--A beta regression approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 65-69, October.
    2. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    6. Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
    7. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    8. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    9. E D Balogun, 2010. "Alternative reconsideration of output growth differential for West African Monetary Zone," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the SARB/IFC seminar on "Economic and financial convergence en route to regional economic integration: experience, prospects and statis, volume 32, pages 106-120, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 11367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?," MPRA Paper 12929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. D. Furceri & G. Karras, 2008. "Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1491-1501.
    15. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    17. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    18. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 13, pages 5-26, March.
    19. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    20. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2015. "Optimum Currency Areas, Real and Nominal Convergence in the European Union," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 42, pages 8-29, December.
    21. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic and monetary union (EMU); business cycles correlation; optimum currency areas; international trade; E32; E42;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:1-18:10.1007/s11294-006-9056-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.