Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?
This study examines the effect of independent exchange rate pursuits and reserve holdings, relative to other determinants, on global export performance of WAMZ countries. The regression results show that exports originating from the Zone to the rest of the world are influenced positively by domestic output, export prices and exchange rate devaluations, but negatively by import price and economic performance of the major global trading partner, proxied by the US GDP. This result is not universal as the Gambia, Ghana and Guinea total exports functions show that exchange rate policy penalized exports contrary to the Nigerian case in which the coefficient estimate is significant and positive. The study infers that these results are consistent with theoretical expectation given the ironical divergence in export basket. Although they are all primary commodity exporters, Nigeria’s exports is mainly crude oil, and a priori expectation is that rapid economic growth or booms in the US should lead to increased demand for energy (healthy competitions). In conclusion, the study infers that since independent flexible exchange rate policy pursuits and reserve holdings makes no difference to the Zonal export performance ex ante, but have great potential for global exports collectively, they could explore an OCA to enhance both intra- and global inter-regional export trade
|Date of creation:||21 Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Christine Dwane & Philip R. Lane & Tara McIndoe, 2007.
"Currency Unions and Irish External Trade,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, .
"Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data,"
170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
- Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
- Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Bond, Eric W. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 411-437, May.
- Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007.
"On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
- Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- José Blanes & Carmela Martín, 2000.
"The nature and causes of intra-industry trade: Back to the comparative advantage explanation? The case of Spain,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 423-441, 09.
- Carmela Martin & Jose V. Blanes, 1999. "The Nature and Causes of Intra-Industry Trade: Back to the Comparative Advantage Explanation? The Case of Spain," European Economy Group Working Papers 1, European Economy Group.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
- Rose, Andrew K, 2003.
"A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
- Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
NBER Working Papers
10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takatoshi Tabuchi & Kristian Behrens & Andrea R. Lamorgese, 2004.
"Testing the Home Market Effects in a Multi-country World: The Theory,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
595, Econometric Society.
- Behrens, Kristian & Lamorgese, Andrea & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2004. "Testing the Home Market Effect in a Multi-Country World: The Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Deardorff, 1998.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002.
""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?,"
Working Paper Series
0138, European Central Bank.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Lionel FontagnÃ© & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 263-287, July.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993.
"Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?,"
NBER Working Papers
4588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural or Supernatural?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 91-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter B. Kenen, 2000.
"Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Peter B. Kenen, 2000. "Currency Areas, Policy Domains, and the Institutionalization of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0467, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
- Peter Pedroni, 1999.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
- Krugman, Paul & Elizondo, Raul Livas, 1996.
"Trade policy and the Third World metropolis,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 137-150, April.
- Richard Pomfret, 2005.
"Regional Trade Agreements,"
School of Economics Working Papers
2005-15, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Andriamananjara, Soamiely, 1999. "On the size and number of regional integration arrangements - a political economy model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2117, The World Bank.
- SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- de Melo, Jaime & Montenegro, Claudio & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Regional integration, old and new," Policy Research Working Paper Series 985, The World Bank.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
- Bayoumi, Tamim, 1998. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
- Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999.
"Currency hedging and goods trade,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
- Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
- Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
- Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
- Fratianni, Michele & Kang, Heejoon, 2006. "Heterogeneous distance-elasticities in trade gravity models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 68-71, January.
- Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
- Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 227-259.
- BEHRENS, Kristian & LAMORGESE, Andrea R. & OTTAVIANO, Gianmarco I.P. & TABUCHI, Takatoshi, 2005. "Testing the ‘home market effect’ in a multi-country world," CORE Discussion Papers 2005055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.