IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone

  • Balogun, Emmanuel Dele

This study presents an alternative reconsideration of traditional Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) macroeconomic convergence criteria as options for West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) commencement, in the light of recent advancements in monetary theory. It presents micro-founded models, rooted in New Keynesian traditions to show that tests confirming widespread divergence from ideal macroeconomic benchmarks with unsustainable independent monetary and exchange rates pursuits and trade gravity models offer a more appropriate evaluating criterion for WAMZ than the current one, if the ultimate objective is a merger with West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Using econometrics methods, especially pooled single equation models applied to national macroeconomic data which span 1991Q1 to 2007Q4, I evaluate the roles of past unsustainable independent national monetary and exchange rates policy pursuits as determinants of macroeconomic stabilizations (reflected by the inflation differential and output gaps/performance vis-à-vis the WAMZ area targets) and inter/intra-regional export performance. This was accompanied by the estimation of a trade gravity model. The strong convergence of aggregate output/demand pattern between WAMZ countries based on trade gravity models thus emerges as a possible positive attribute of countries participating in efficient currency areas

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11367/1/MPRA_paper_11367.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11367.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11367
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2002. "Self-Validating Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 3220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Willem H. Buiter & Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Working Papers 5140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Monetary policy and economic performance of West African Monetary Zone Countries," MPRA Paper 4308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
  11. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
  12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
  14. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2005. "Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Working Papers 105, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  15. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  17. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
  18. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  19. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
  20. Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2002. "Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 11(3), pages 387-412, September.
  21. Fratianni, Michele & Kang, Heejoon, 2006. "Heterogeneous distance-elasticities in trade gravity models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 68-71, January.
  22. Roman Horváth & Kamila Koprnická, 2008. "Inflation Differentials in EU New Member States: An Empirical Evidence," Working Papers IES 2008/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2008.
  23. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Krugman, Paul & Elizondo, Raul Livas, 1996. "Trade policy and the Third World metropolis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 137-150, April.
  25. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2003. "Do Currency Unions Deliver More Economic Integration than Fixed Exchange Rates? Evidence from the CFA and the ECCU," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  26. Devarajan, Shantayanan & de Melo, Jaime, 1987. "Evaluating participation in African monetary unions: A statistical analysis of the CFA Zones," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 483-496, April.
  27. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  28. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
  29. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
  30. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1996. "The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133180, December.
  31. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
  32. Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," Trinity Economics Papers 20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  33. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2003. "Economic Integration in West Africa: Does the CFA Make a Difference?," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/8, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  34. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
  37. Devarajan, Shantayanan & de Melo, Jaime, 1990. "Membership in the CFA zone : Odyssean journey or Trojan horse?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 482, The World Bank.
  38. de Melo, Jaime & Montenegro, Claudio & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Regional integration, old and new," Policy Research Working Paper Series 985, The World Bank.
  39. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An Empirical Test of Trade Gravity Model Criteria for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," MPRA Paper 7083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.