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Inflation Differentials in EU New Member States: An Empirical Evidence

  • Roman Horvath


  • Kamila Koprnicka

In this paper, we examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the newEuropean Union member states vis-à-vis the euro area in 1997-2007. Our main results are as follows. Exchange rate appreciation and higher price level in the new EU members is associated with narrower inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area, while fiscal deficit and positive output gap seem to contribute to higher inflation differential. Nevertheless, the effect of price convergence on inflation differentials is found to be dominating in these countries suggesting that a country with price level 20% below the euro area average is likely to exhibit inflation nearly one percentage point above the euro area. Overall, our results indicate that real convergence factors rather than cyclical variation are more important for inflation developments in the new EU members, as compared to the euro area.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp937.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-937
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  1. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Balázs �gert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
  4. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  6. Altissimo, Filippo & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Balázs Égert, 2008. "Prices and Price Convergence in Emerging Europe: an Overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 204(1), pages 66-84, April.
  8. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
  9. Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," Trinity Economics Papers 20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  10. Balazs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp895, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 0388, European Central Bank.
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