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Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East

  • Karsten Staehr

    ()

This paper investigates the process of price convergence in the 10 new EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The analyses are based on panel data from 1995 to 2008 of the common currency price relative to the EU15 average. The lagged income level exhibit little explanatory power towards relative inflation, while the lagged price level has some explanatory power. In the long term the relative income and price levels are closely correlated implying concurrent nominal and real convergence. Deviations from the long-term relation between price and income levels are gradually closed by changes in relative inflation and GDP growth, but the process of convergence appears to be rather slow. In the short term the capital inflows associated with current account deficits put substantial upward pressure on the relative price inflation, while the Balassa-Samuelson effect appears to be subdued

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Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number wp2010-04.

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Date of creation: 22 Mar 2010
Date of revision: 22 Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2010-04
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  16. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
  17. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
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  21. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ulrich Fritsche & Michael Graff & Michael Lamla & Sarah Lein & Volker Nitsch & David Liechti & Daniel Triet, 2009. "The euro and prices: changeover-related inflation and price convergence in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 381, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  22. Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili, 2011. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity for the New EU Members and Turkey : Panel Cointegration Analysis with Disaggregated CPI," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 49-69.
  23. Balázs Égert, 2008. "Prices and Price Convergence in Emerging Europe: an Overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 204(1), pages 66-84, April.
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