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Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies

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  • Dimitris K. Christopoulos
  • Karine Gente
  • Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an overlapping generations two-sector exogenous growth model in which RER determination may depend on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high demestic savings, the RER only depends on productivity spread between two sectors (Balassa-Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, the RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, the RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and by productivity in unconstrained countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Karine Gente & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2010. "Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies," Studies in Economics 1011, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1011
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    3. Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2015. "Factor Analysis of the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mn11, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2010. "Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574955, HAL.
    5. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра), 2015. "Analysis of Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mak13, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Net foreign assets and current account balances," Discussion Papers 2019/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    7. Atif, Syed Muhammad & Sauytbekova, Moldir & Macdonald, James, 2012. "The determinants of australian exchange rate: a time series analysis," MPRA Paper 42309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2013. "Net Foreign Assets, Real Exchange Rates and Net Exports Revisited," Discussion Papers 13/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    9. Ali Trabelsi Karoui & Aida Kammoun, 2021. "Exchange Rate Determination: Mixed Microstructural and Macroeconomic Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 89-106.
    10. Doan, Thi Hong Thinh & Gente, Karine, 2014. "Real exchange rate and productivity in a specific-factor model with skilled and unskilled labour," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    13. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2017. "Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 319-347, June.
    14. Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2010. "Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited," Working Papers halshs-00574955, HAL.
    15. Kharrat, Sabrine & Hammami, Yacine & Fatnassi, Ibrahim, 2020. "On the cross-sectional relation between exchange rates and future fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 484-501.
    16. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2020. "The Dutch Disease Revisited: Theory and Evidence," PSE Working Papers halshs-03012647, HAL.
    17. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    18. A. V. Bozhechkova & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev & P. V. Trunin, 2020. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    19. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Global Imbalances and the External Solvency of Nations," Discussion Papers 14/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    20. Liudmila Malyshava, 2018. "External Instability in Transition: Applying Minsky's Theory of Financial Fragility to International Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_909, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 655-675, September.
    22. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.
    23. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rate; Capital Inflows Constraint; Overlapping Generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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