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Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited

  • Mouhamadou Sy

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

  • Hamidreza Tabarraei

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

In this paper, the link between capital inflows and real exchange rate movements in LDCs is revisited theoretically and empirically. On the theoretical side we present a simple model to show that the real exchange rate depends mainly on "real fundamentals" such as terms of trade or productivity differentials. Empirically, we take into account the heterogeneity of the sample, the dynamics of the RER and the non stationary nature of the data. Capital inflows can be oil revenues, foreign aid, remittances or FDI. We show that real fundamentals are the main driving forces of real exchange rate movements in LDCs and not capital inflows. The Balassa-Samuelson effect by itself accounts for 57% of the RER variations while capital inflows account only for 19% of RER variations. The Dutch Disease theory is not rejected but its effect on RER movements in LDCs is weak.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00574955.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00574955
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  1. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  2. Jeffrey B. Nugent & Makoto Yano, 1999. "Aid, Nontraded Goods, and the Transfer Paradox in Small Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 431-449, June.
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  4. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2012. "Net foreign assets, productivity and real exchange rates in constrained economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 295-316.
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  6. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  7. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  8. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2007. "Capital inflows and the real exchange rate: An empirical study of sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 337-357.
  9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  10. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Foreign Aid Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate In The Cfa Franc Zone," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 37-52.
  12. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
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