IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upn/wpaper/2017-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?

Author

Listed:
  • Mariem Brahim

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

  • Nader Nefzi

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

  • Hamed Sambo

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of remittances on real effective exchange rate in MENA countries using an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and three estimators, namely the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Mean Group estimator and the dynamics common correlated effects estimator. We use data from 9 countries of MENA region for the 1980-2015 period. On the long-run, we find that migrants’ remittances towards the whole MENA countries negatively and significantly affect the real effective exchange rate. Indeed, the increase in remittances leads to a depreciation of the real exchange rate, meaning that remittances do not deteriorate the price competitiveness of the recipient countries in the long-run. Therefore, remittances do not cause the Dutch disease’s risk in MENA countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers 2017-15, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    • Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepn.univ-paris13.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DT-CEPN-2017-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01583564/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    2. Mario Holzner, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Distortion in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 68, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    4. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/075, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    7. Pablo A. Acosta & Nicole Rae Baerg & Federico S. Mandelman, 2009. "Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 94(1), pages 1-12.
    8. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
    9. Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2005/126, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Nyoni, Timothy S., 1998. "Foreign Aid and Economic Performance in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1235-1240, July.
    11. Richard Adams, 2011. "Evaluating the Economic Impact of International Remittances On Developing Countries Using Household Surveys: A Literature Review," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 809-828.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    14. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    15. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    16. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    17. Mr. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2006/257, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness: a Bayesian Analysis," Post-Print hal-01884858, HAL.
    19. H. Issa & B. Ouattara, 2008. "Foreign Aid Flows And Real Exchange Rate: Evidence From Syria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 133-146, June.
    20. White, Howard & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 1992. "Exchange rates, trade liberalization and aid: The Sri Lankan experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1471-1480, October.
    21. repec:aer:wpaper:82 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    23. Singer, David Andrew, 2010. "Migrant Remittances and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Developing World," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 307-323, May.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    25. Ilene Grabel, 2008. "The Political Economy of Remittances: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," Working Papers wp184, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    26. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Foreign Aid Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate In The Cfa Franc Zone," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 37-52.
    27. Ogun, O., 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Movements and Export Growth: Nigeria, 1960-1990," Papers 82, African Economic Research Consortium.
    28. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1999. "Can Africa export manufactures? The role of endowment, exchange rates, and transaction costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2120, The World Bank.
    29. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    30. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    31. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
    32. Juan Carlos Castañeda Fuentes & Juan Carlos Catalán Herrera, 2008. "Emigrant Remittances and the Real Exchange rate in Guatemala: an Adjustment-Costs Story," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 31-71, January-J.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Fisera & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2023. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Do Remittances Trigger the Dutch Disease?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 23-65, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01583564 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    3. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    4. Nader NEFZI & Joël OUDINET & Mouez SOUSSI, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 87-114.
    5. Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2010. "Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited," Working Papers halshs-00574955, HAL.
    6. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    7. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hao, Linna & Ahmad, Shabbir & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Knowledge spill-over and institutional quality role in controlling Dutch disease: A case of BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    10. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Zhaosu MENG & Naila NAZIR, 2018. "Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-41, December.
    11. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Colin F. Mang, 2022. "Do remittances cause Dutch Disease? A meta-analytic review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(36), pages 4131-4153, August.
    12. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Reneé van Eyden & Francis M Kemegue, 2014. "Remittances and the Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(3), September.
    13. Pedro Martins, 2011. "Do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness? The Dutch disease in Ethiopia," Post-Print hal-00748067, HAL.
    14. Joseph David, 2024. "The role of corruption in the oil price–growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-32, December.
    15. Boris Fisera & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2023. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Do Remittances Trigger the Dutch Disease?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 23-65, January.
    16. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    17. Anil Shrestha & Makoto Kakinaka, 2022. "Remittance Inflows and Energy Transition of the Residential Sector in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness: a Bayesian Analysis," Post-Print hal-01884858, HAL.
    19. Mamun, Md. Al & Sohag, Kazi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Remittance and domestic labor productivity: Evidence from remittance recipient countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 207-218.
    20. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    21. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Development Aid, Remittances Inflows and Wages in the Manufacturing Sector of Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213439, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Remittances; Real effective exchange rate; Dutch Disease; Monetary policy; MENA; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pascal Seppecher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cep13fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.