IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upn/wpaper/2017-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?

Author

Listed:
  • Mariem Brahim

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

  • Nader Nefzi

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

  • Hamed Sambo

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of remittances on real effective exchange rate in MENA countries using an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and three estimators, namely the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Mean Group estimator and the dynamics common correlated effects estimator. We use data from 9 countries of MENA region for the 1980-2015 period. On the long-run, we find that migrants’ remittances towards the whole MENA countries negatively and significantly affect the real effective exchange rate. Indeed, the increase in remittances leads to a depreciation of the real exchange rate, meaning that remittances do not deteriorate the price competitiveness of the recipient countries in the long-run. Therefore, remittances do not cause the Dutch disease’s risk in MENA countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers 2017-15, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
  • Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepn.univ-paris13.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DT-CEPN-2017-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01583564/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    7. H. Issa & B. Ouattara, 2008. "Foreign Aid Flows And Real Exchange Rate: Evidence From Syria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 133-146, June.
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    9. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    10. Singer, David Andrew, 2010. "Migrant Remittances and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Developing World," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 307-323, May.
    11. Ilene Grabel, 2008. "The Political Economy of Remittances: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," Working Papers wp184, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    12. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Foreign Aid Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate In The Cfa Franc Zone," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 37-52.
    13. Ogun, O., 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Movements and Export Growth: Nigeria, 1960-1990," Papers 82, African Economic Research Consortium.
    14. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    15. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
    16. Mario Holzner, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Distortion in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 68, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    17. Pablo A. Acosta & Nicole Rae Baerg & Federico S. Mandelman, 2009. "Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 94(1), pages 1-12.
    18. Nyoni, Timothy S., 1998. "Foreign Aid and Economic Performance in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1235-1240, July.
    19. Richard Adams, 2011. "Evaluating the Economic Impact of International Remittances On Developing Countries Using Household Surveys: A Literature Review," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 809-828.
    20. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2010. "Workers' Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Center for Development Economics 2010-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    2. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    4. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Reneé van Eyden & Francis M Kemegue, 2014. "Remittances and the Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(3), September.
    5. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    7. Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2010. "Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited," Working Papers halshs-00574955, HAL.
    8. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    9. Pedro Martins, 2011. "Do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness? The Dutch disease in Ethiopia," Post-Print hal-00748067, HAL.
    10. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "External imbalances in a monetary union. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Working Papers 10-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    12. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    14. Mamun, Md. Al & Sohag, Kazi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Remittance and domestic labor productivity: Evidence from remittance recipient countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 207-218.
    15. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    16. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    17. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    19. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. repec:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:11:p:12718-12728:d:58623 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Remittances; Real effective exchange rate; Dutch Disease; Monetary policy; MENA; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cep13fr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pascal Seppecher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cep13fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.