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Real Exchange Rate Distortion in Southeast Europe

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  • Mario Holzner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

In this paper, first we investigate to which extent the real exchange rate is distorted in the 7 Southeast European countries (SEECs), and compare the findings with other countries in Europe. Second, we shed light into possible determinants and effects of the real exchange rate distortions. Finally, a policy change away from a possibly distorted real exchange rate in the SEECs is being simulated. The results indicate that especially the West Balkan countries have overvalued real exchange rates, while other transition countries' exchange rates are rather undervalued. Some of the main determinants of the real exchange rate distortion are related to the inflow of remittances and FDI, while it was found that nominal exchange rate depreciation and trade openness reduce the real exchange rate distortion. The simulation model shows that a devaluation can have large positive effects on domestic output, exports and trade with self.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Holzner, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Distortion in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 68, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:bpaper:068
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    2. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers 2017-15, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    3. Manitra Rakotoarisoa, 2007. "Explaining Durations in Country Investment Ratings: A Competing Risk Model with Random-Effects," EcoMod2007 23900074, EcoMod.
    4. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    6. Manuel BENAZIC & Ines KERSAN-SKABIC, 2016. "The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7, pages 125-150, June.
    7. Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin, 2011. "Determinants of Remittances: Evidence From tonga," IMF Working Papers 2011/018, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rate; Partial Equilibrium Model; Simulation Model; International Trade; Southeast Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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