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Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie

Listed author(s):
  • Farid MAKHLOUF
  • Khaled CHNAINA

Les transferts de fonds vers la Tunisie constituent une source de devises non négligeable, Ils ont augmenté d’une manière rapide notamment la dernière décennie. Ces devises engendrées par les migrants tunisiens, peuvent causer le phénomène de syndrome hollandais. Le but de ce travail est d’étudier l’impact des ces transferts sur taux de change réel effectif. En estimant des relations de co-intégration avec ruptures structurelles par l’intermédiaire de la méthode de Johansen et al. (2000) et Saikkonen et Lütkepohl (2000) et Saikkonen et al. (2004), nous avons trouvé qu’une augmentation de 1% de ratio des transferts de fonds sur PIB provoque une appréciation de taux de change réel d’équilibre de 0,39 %. Ce qui confirme l’hypothèse de syndrome hollandais dans l’économie tunisienne. Remittances in Tunisia constitute a main foreign flow, they have increased rapidly particularly over the past decade. This devises which generated by Tunisian migrants can induce Dutch disease. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between remittances and reel effective exchange rate. By estimating cointegration relations with structural breaks through the method of Johansen et al. (2000) and Saikkonen-Lütkepohl (2000) Saikkonen et al. (2004), we found that an increase in worker’s remittances of 1% point of GDP is associated with an appreciation of Tunisia’s real effective exchange rate by 0.39%. This result approves the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Tunisia.

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File URL: http://gtl.univ-pau.fr/travaux/835F_110688_2011_2012_4DocWcattImpactTransfertFdsSurTxChangeReelTunisie_KChnaina_FMakhlouf.pdf
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Paper provided by CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour in its series Working Papers with number 2011-2012_4.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision: Feb 2012
Handle: RePEc:tac:wpaper:2011-2012_4
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