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Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie

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  • Khaled Chnaina
  • Farid Makhlouf

Abstract

Les transferts de fonds des migrants tunisiens constituent une source de devises non négligeable, Ils ont augmenté d'une manière rapide notamment la dernière décennie. Ils peuvent également engendrer le phénomène de syndrome hollandais. Le but de ce travail est d'étudier l'impact des transferts sur taux de change réel effectif. En estimant des relations de co‐intégration avec ruptures structurelles par l'intermédiaire de la méthode de Johansen et al. () et Saikkonen et Lütkepohl () et Saikkonen et al. (); nous avons trouvé qu'une augmentation de 1% de ratio des transferts de fonds sur PIB provoque une appréciation de taux de change réel d'équilibre de 0,39%. Ce qui confirme l'hypothèse de syndrome hollandais dans l'économie tunisienne. Abstract Remittances to Tunisia constitute a main foreign flow; they have increased rapidly particularly over the past decade. Remittances can induce the syndrome known as Dutch Disease. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of remittances on the real effective exchange rate. By estimating cointegration relations with structural breaks through the method of Johansen et al. (); Saikkonen and Lütkepohl () and Saikkonen et al. (); we found that an increase in worker's remittances of 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with an appreciation of Tunisia's real effective exchange rate by 0.39 per cent. This result confirms the hypothesis of Dutch Disease in Tunisia.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:27:y:2015:i:2:p:145-160
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12130
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    Cited by:

    1. Farid MAKHLOUF, 2013. "Remittances and Dutch Disease: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2013-2014_8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2013.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Amal Miftah, 2019. "The relationship between remittances and macroeconomic variables in times of political and social upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 355-394, February.
    3. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.

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