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The Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia’s Arab Spring

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Refk Selmi

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Amal Miftah

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

If Tunisia is hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators relative to other Arab countries, the popular 2011 uprisings underscored the fragility of its main economic pillars, including those of tourism and foreign direct investment. This paper examines the economic impact of migrants' remittances, which are expected to exhibit relatively countercyclical behaviour during periods of intense upheaval. This study is novel in its methodological approach, which is used to pinpoint the dynamic effects of remittances on key macroeconomic variables within an unstable framework. The analysis reveals that the effect of remittances on Tunisia's economy has varied over time. Prior to the Arab Spring, remittances had a short‐term negative influence on economic growth, varying effects on domestic investment and positive impacts on consumption. In considering the post‐Arab uprisings, positive and strong impacts of remittances on growth and consumption are found in the long run while negative and moderate investment effects of remittances are shown over the short and medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Amal Miftah, 2019. "The Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia’s Arab Spring," Post-Print hal-01879664, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01879664
    DOI: 10.1111/ecot.12199
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    Cited by:

    1. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2021. "The role of remittances in times of socio-political unrest: Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers hal-03263815, HAL.
    2. Strike Mbulawa & Samuel Chingoiro & Robert Machera, 2022. "Dynamics of the remittances: Fnancial development nexus in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA)," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(4), pages 171-182, June.
    3. Ahmad, Waheed & Ozturk, Ilhan & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2022. "How do remittances affect environmental sustainability in Pakistan? Evidence from NARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Segun Subair Awode & Emeka Okoro Akpa & Andy Titus Okwu, 2021. "The effect of remittance and volatility in remittances on macroeconomic performance in Africa: any lessons for COVID-19?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-15, October.
    5. Bashier Al-Abdulrazag & Musa Foudeh, 2022. "Does inflation reduce remittance outflows in Saudi Arabia?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2141424-214, December.
    6. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2024. "‘From aspirations for climate action to the reality of climate disasters’: Can remittances play key role in disaster response?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3487-3510, August.

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