IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?

  • Ian Babetskii

    ()

    (International Economic Analysis Division, Czech National Bank; CERGE-EI, Charles University in Prague; and CNRS-ROSES, University of Paris I-Sorbonne)

  • Balázs Égert

    ()

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank; MODEM, University of Paris X-Nanterre; and William Davidson Institute)

The paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna using the reduced-form equation of the stock-flow approach advocated by, for example, Faruqee (1995) and Alberola et al. (1999). We investigate whether the observed real exchange rate of the Czech koruna is close to its equilibrium value over the period from 1993 to 2004. Our empirical approach is tantamount to the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER), popularized by MacDonald (1997) and Clark and MacDonald (1998), in that the Czech real exchange rate vis-a`-vis the euro is regressed on the dual productivity differential; and the net foreign assets position, based on which actual and total misalignment figures, are derived in a time-series context. In other words, we check the quality of the Czech BEER. We also study the impact of a possible initial undervaluation on the estimated equilibrium exchange rate. Employing monthly time series from 1993, and applying several alternative cointegration techniques, we identify a period of an overvaluation in 1997 and in 1999, an increasing overvaluation afterwards, an undervaluation in 2003, and a correction toward equilibrium in the second half of 2004.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1019_s_232_252.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5-6 (May)
Pages: 232-252

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:5-6:p:232-252
Contact details of provider: Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
  2. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
  3. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
  6. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
  7. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  8. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Balázs Égert & László Halpern, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp769, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
  12. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & McDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  15. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 138-181.
  16. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 0314, European Central Bank.
  18. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society.
  19. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa-Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, 07.
  20. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
  22. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies: Methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 499-517, September.
  24. repec:rus:hseeco:123846 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  26. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  27. Montalvo, Jose G., 1995. "Comparing cointegrating regression estimators: Some additional Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 229-234, June.
  28. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  31. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  32. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
  33. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  34. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
  35. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:5-6:p:232-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.