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Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Prospect of joining the EMU

Author

Listed:
  • Cécile Couharde

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Virginie Coudert

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The real exchange rates of CEECs have been appreciating for the last decade, especially when measured by consumer prices. We argue that the size of this appreciation is linked to the exchange rate regime, the pegged currencies being more prone to this phenomenon in the long run. We also show that this appreciation is not necessarily linked to overvaluation. First, it is largely reduced when using a proxy of tradable prices as deflator, according to the "Balassa-Samuelson effect". Second, we use a large sample of emerging countries to calculate "normal" levels of real exchange rates taking into account the "Balassa effect" and show that CEECs do not suffer from systematic overvaluation according to this norm. We then calculate Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, using a model of the foreign trade of five CEECs (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Estonia) and their main partners based on NIGEM. We show that these CEEC currencies only have very small misalignment. This is due to the fact that the response of their foreign trade to small changes in the exchange rate is especially high, because of the high degree of openness and large export price elasticities.

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Virginie Coudert, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Prospect of joining the EMU," Post-Print halshs-00119109, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00119109
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22.
    2. Cuong Le Van & Cécile Couharde & Thai Bao Luong, 2006. "The Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in a Simple General Equilibrium Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 506-517, August.
    3. Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2005/065, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
    5. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    6. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    7. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rubaszek, Michal & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 277-284, December.
    10. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    11. Oomes, Nienke, 2005. "Maintaining competitiveness under equilibrium real appreciation: The case of Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-204, June.
    12. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    13. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
    15. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    16. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies: Methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 499-517, September.
    17. Candelon, Bertrand & Kool, Clemens & Raabe, Katharina & van Veen, Tom, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate determinants: Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993-2003," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, March.
    18. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 138-181.

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