Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries
Are there indications of real exchange rate misalignment in the case of the five pre-accession countries? Will stable real exchange rates, required by two of the Maastricht criteria, be in line with economic fundamentals in the pre-EMU period in these countries? In order to address these questions, we employ the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER), taking into account the specific features of countries in the advanced stage of transition. The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit. The model coefficients are calibrated according to our previous econometric work. Sensitivity tests are used to deal with uncertainty about the baseline assumptions. According to the FRERs, there were signs of overvaluation for all the pre-accession economies, with the exception of Slovenia, at the end of 2001. The second main finding relates to the feasibility of stable real exchange rates in the pre-EMU period. Stability of real exchange rates will not automatically be in line with economic fundamentals in the forthcoming period and, moreover, the FRERs do not move in one direction in all the pre-accession countries. This finding suggests that some flexibility of exchange rates will be needed in the forthcoming period.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, May.
- International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek, 2001. "On the Way to European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence in Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 51(6), pages 330-347, June.
- Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
- Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001.
"Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002.
"An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
15, Royal Economic Society.
- Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA.
- Dr Martin Weale, 1998. "UK Consumption in the long run: the determinants of consumer spending 19251995," NIESR Discussion Papers 204, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Mark P. Taylor & Michael J. Artis, 1993. "Deer Hunting: Misalignment, Debt Accumulation, and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 93/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Katerina Smidkova & Jiri Behounek & Tibor Hledik & Josef Jilek & Miroslav Kostel & Ivana Matalikova & Dana Rottova & Jana Stankova, 1998.
"Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May 1997,"
Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers
1998/02, Czech National Bank.
- Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
- Steven A. Symansky & Peter B. Clark & Leonardo Bartolini & Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 115, International Monetary Fund.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jér�me Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
- Emil Stavrev, 2000. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies' Efficiency and the Determination of a Nominal Equilibrium Exchange Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 50(9), pages 452-463, September.
- Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-86, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2002/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.