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Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Stein, Jerome L.

    (Brown University)

  • Allen, Polly Reynolds

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Existing models fail to explain the large fluctuations in the real exchange rates of most currencies over the past twenty years. The Natural Real Exchange Rate approach (NATREX) taken here offers an alternative paradigm to those which focus on short-run movements of nominal eschange rates, purchasing power parity of the representative agent intertemporal optimization models. Yet it is also neo-classical in its stress upon the accepted fundamentals driving a real economy. It concentrates on the real exchange rate, and explains medium- tolong-run movements in equilibrium real exchange rates in terms of fundamental variables: the productivity of capital and social (public plus private) thrift at home and abroad. The NATREX approach is a family of growth models, each tailored to the characteristics of the countries considered. The authors explain the real international value of the US dollar relativ to the G10 countries, and the US current account. These are two large economies. The model is also applied to small economies, where it explains the real value of the Australian dollar and the Latin American currencies relative to the US dollar. The model is relevant for developing countries where the foreign debt is a concern. Finally, it is applied to two medium-sized economies to explain the bilateral exchange rate between the French franc and the Deutsche Mark. The authors demonstrate both the promise of the NATREX model and its applicability to economies large and small. Alongside the analysis, econometrics, and technical details of these case studies, the introductory chapter explains in accessible terms the rationale behind the approach. The mix of theory and empirical evidence makes this book relevant to academics and advanced graduate students, and to central banks, ministries of finance, and those concerned with the foreign debt of developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780198293064
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Rey, Serge, 2003. "Trends non linéaires et co-trending dans le taux de change réel effectif du dinar tunisien
      [Nonlinear trend and co-trending in the Tunisian real effective exchange rate]
      ," MPRA Paper 30249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Polly R. Allen, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of Mexico's Exchange-Rate Crisis of 1994," Working papers 1996-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 383-398.
    5. John Sarich, 2006. "What do we know about the real exchange rate? A classical cost of production story," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 469-496.
    6. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tells Us about Acceding Economies," Working Papers IES 64, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    7. El Bouhadi, A. & Elkhider, Abdelkader & Kchirid, El Mustapha & Idriss, El Abbassi, 2008. "LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique
      [THE Exchange Rate Determinants in Morocco: An Empirical Investigation]
      ," MPRA Paper 24115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. P.J.G. Vlaar, 2001. "On the Strength of the US dollar: Can it be Explained by Output Growth?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 668, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    10. Hadj Amor Thouraya & El Araj Rita, 2009. "Long Term Dynamic of Real Exchange Rate, Trade Liberalization and Financial Integration: The Case of South-East Mediterranean Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, March.

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