IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

  • Jan Babecky
  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2011_01.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2011/01.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01
Contact details of provider: Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners," Working Papers 2004/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. repec:nsr:niesrd:275 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," NBER Working Papers 16006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2006. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," NIESR Discussion Papers 1261, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  5. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 02/51, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2008. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-07, CEPII research center.
  8. Peter Backé & Martin Feldkircher & Ernest Gnan & Mathias Lahnsteiner & Ewald Nowotny & Jürgen Kröger & Stefan Kuhnert & Mary McCarthy & Sebastián Nieto-Parra & Javier Santiso & Stéphane Dees & Filippo, 2010. "Contagion and Spillovers: New Insights from the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2010/5 edited by Peter Backé, Ernest Gnan and Philipp Hartmann, May.
  9. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Dr Martin Weale, 1998. "UK Consumption in the long run: the determinants of consumer spending 19251995," NIESR Discussion Papers 204, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  11. Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Mathilde Maurel, 2010. "Growth and crisis in transition : a comparative perspective," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00469327, HAL.
  14. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies," Working Papers 0920, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  15. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States; Bad Luck or Bad Policies?," IMF Working Papers 10/130, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  17. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Adopting the Euro in Central Europe; Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration," IMF Occasional Papers 234, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.