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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

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Listed author(s):
  • Jan Babecky
  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2011/01.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01
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Keywords: Foreign direct investment; Great Recession; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
  • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
  • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
  • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
  2. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
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  12. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Florina PINZARU & Mihaela DINU & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2014. "Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy Journal, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 2(4), pages 21-40, April.
  4. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek.
  5. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
  6. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
  7. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
  8. Sophocles Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2013. "Liquidity And The Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence From The Greek Banking Sector," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 109-126, October -.
  9. Iršová, Zuzana & Havránek, Tomáš, 2013. "Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
  10. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy Journal, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
  11. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
  12. Boero, Gianna & Mavromatis, Kostas & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real exchange rates and transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 23-35.

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