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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

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  • Jan Babecky
  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Working Papers 2011/01, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01
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    Cited by:

    1. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, March.
    3. Iršová, Zuzana & Havránek, Tomáš, 2013. "Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, March.
    5. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; Great Recession; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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