IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8


  • Fic, Tatiana
  • Barrell, Ray
  • Holland, Dawn


New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity at which they will join has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the optimal exchange rate. Given the probable difficulty in evaluating the equilibrium rate it is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as it has implications for countries' real and nominal convergence. An overvalued exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country's competitiveness and its growth, while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Fic, Tatiana & Barrell, Ray & Holland, Dawn, 2008. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 761-774.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:761-774

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    2. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
    3. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
    4. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    5. repec:nsr:niesrd:275 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Philippe Aghion & Alan Ahearne & Marek Belka & Lars Heikensten & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Jürgen von Hagen, . "Coming of age: report on the euro area," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 11, August.
    7. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(4).
    8. Nigel Pain & Dawn Holland, 1998. "The Diffusion Of Innovations In Central And Eastern Europe: A Study Of The Determinants And Impact O," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 137, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Barrell, Ray & Dées, Stéphane, 2005. "World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations," Working Paper Series 503, European Central Bank.
    10. Breuss, Fritz & Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter, 2004. "How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 769-791, October.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1995. "Increasing returns, imperfect competition and the positive theory of international trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1243-1277 Elsevier.
    12. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 152-167, Autumn.
    13. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2007. "Sustainable Adjustment of Global Imbalances," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0343, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Barrell, R. & Hall, S.G. & Hurst, I., 2006. "Evaluating policy feedback rules using the joint density function of a stochastic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-5, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2012. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 226-251, July.
    2. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic, 2010. "Integration, Globalisation, Technology and Trade Patterns in the EU8," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(1).

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:761-774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.