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Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8

  • Fic, Tatiana
  • Barrell, Ray
  • Holland, Dawn

New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity at which they will join has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the optimal exchange rate. Given the probable difficulty in evaluating the equilibrium rate it is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as it has implications for countries' real and nominal convergence. An overvalued exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country's competitiveness and its growth, while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal ones.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 761-774

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:761-774
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  1. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
  2. Krugman, Paul, 1995. "Increasing returns, imperfect competition and the positive theory of international trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1243-1277 Elsevier.
  3. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
  4. Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2005. "Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?," IMF Working Papers 05/27, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Barrell, Ray & Dées, Stéphane, 2005. "World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations," Working Paper Series 0503, European Central Bank.
  7. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2007. "Sustainable Adjustment of Global Imbalances," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0343, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Philippe Aghion & Alan Ahearne & Marek Belka & Lars Heikensten & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Jürgen von Hagen, . "Coming of age: report on the euro area," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 11, June.
  9. Barrell, R. & Hall, S.G. & Hurst, I., 2006. "Evaluating policy feedback rules using the joint density function of a stochastic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-5, October.
  10. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 152-67, Autumn.
  11. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
  12. Breuss, Fritz & Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter, 2004. "How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 769-791, October.
  13. repec:nsr:niesrd:275 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Nigel Pain & Dawn Holland, 1998. "The Diffusion Of Innovations In Central And Eastern Europe: A Study Of The Determinants And Impact O," NIESR Discussion Papers 137, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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