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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?

  • Horvath, Roman
  • Komarek, Lubos

In this paper we discuss the estimation and methodology of the real equilibrium exchange rate partial equilibrium models and analyze to what extent the resulting estimates are applicable for setting the central parity prior to ERM II entry in the new EU member states. Given the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, we argue that they are informative in the sign rather than the size of the misalignment of the exchange rate, but may still serve as useful consistency checks for the decision on the setting of the central parity. We argue that policy makers should consider the estimates in their decision-making only if the real exchange rate is substantially misaligned.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1180/1/MPRA_paper_1180.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1180.

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Date of creation: 20 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1180
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  1. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Martin Melecký & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 14(1), pages 105-121, May.
  3. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  6. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
  7. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries : Evidence from dynamic heterogenous panel models," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  9. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics; A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition : the tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Michal Rubaszek, 2004. "A Model of Balance of Payments Equilibrium Exchange Rate," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(3), pages 5-22, May.
  13. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
  14. Hochreiter, Eduard & Tavlas, George S., 2004. "On the road again: an essay on the optimal path to EMU for the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 793-816, October.
  15. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:223 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  17. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  18. Lucio Sarno & Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2003. "The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 295-333, November.
  19. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
  20. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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