IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnb/wpaper/2003-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Cihak
  • Tomas Holub

Abstract

The paper analyses the price convergence in the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the European Union (EU). Cross-country comparisons based on the International Comparison Project (ICP) 1999 are used. The authors conclude that in a benchmark convergence scenario, the equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation of the Czech koruna (CZK) should reach roughly 1.5-2.0 percent a year. They also warn, however, that there may be additional sources of real appreciation such as terms-of-trade changes or price deregulations, which may lead to a higher pace in the medium run. Studying a more detailed breakdown of commodities, the authors find that no clear distinction can be made between tradable and non-tradable goods, the 'degree of non-tradability' varying between 10 and 85 percent. The implications of this for differences in the structures of relative prices in the CEE countries compared with the EU are analysed. The paper concludes that it may take about 15 years for the Czech relative price structure to converge to the least-developed EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/wp2-2003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Yi Vivian & Heston, Alan & Lipsey, Robert, 2000. "International and interarea comparisons of income, output and prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 363-364, December.
    2. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp167, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Marková & Jiøí Podpiera, 2003. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 130-153, March.
    4. William T. Dickens & Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Interindustry Wage Differences and Industry Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 2014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Helwege, Jean, 1992. "Sectoral Shifts and Interindustry Wage Differentials," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 55-84, January.
    6. Fallick, Bruce Chelimsky, 1996. "The hiring of new labor by expanding industries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 25-42, August.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    8. repec:fth:harver:1464 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    10. Gibbons, R. & Katz, L., 1989. "Does Unmeasured Ability Explain Inter-Industry Wage Differences," Working papers 543, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Danijel Nestić, 2005. "Price Level Convergence: Croatia, Transition Countries and the EU," Working Papers 13, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    2. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    3. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    4. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
    5. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    8. Tomas Holub & Martin Cihak, 2003. "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju.
    10. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    11. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 138-181.
    13. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    14. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    15. Robert Ambrisko & Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zl, 2010. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2010," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as10 edited by Dana Hajkova & Romana Zamazalova.
    16. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju.
    17. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    18. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.
    20. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2005. "Price Convergence in EU-Accession Countries: Evidence from the International Comparison," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 102, pages 59-82.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson model; inflation; relative prices.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.