IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1486.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States – Go East, Prudent Man!

Author

Listed:
  • Ondrej Schneider
  • Jan Zápal

Abstract

The European Union (EU) accepted ten new member states (NMS) in 2004. These countries, mostly former socialist countries, have had to adjust their economic policies to the EU’s standards. Perhaps most difficult has proven to be fiscal policy whereby NMS must comply with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) rules. Indeed, six out of the ten NMS have breached the SGP limits and were put in Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). While the SGP is being modified, fiscal policy is set to remain on the agenda for all NMS in years to come. In this paper, we analyze fiscal policy in the NMS, focusing primarily on the time period that immediately preceded their EU accession. We analyse the structure and scale of these countries’ fiscal policy and identify main trends in revenues and expenditures of their public budgets. We then explore dynamics of fiscal policy in the new member states and isolate main factors of the dynamics. Namely, we show how much of the consolidations was due to the fiscal authorities’ effort and how much was caused by external factors. We also show that most NMS governments have run a rather inconsistent fiscal policy and have not consolidated their budgets appropriately by postponing politically difficult consolidation measures. However, we also identify a group of countries characterised by strong reform efforts and responsible fiscal policy-making, supported usually by strong economic growth. In this context, room is given to economic, as well as political economy factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States – Go East, Prudent Man!," CESifo Working Paper Series 1486, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1486
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1486.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    2. Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    4. Orban, Gabor & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the perspective of the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 839-864, October.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    6. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, December.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," Springer Books, in: Paul J.J. Welfens & Anna Wziątek-Kubiak (ed.), Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics, pages 205-239, Springer.
    10. Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
    11. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
    12. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
    14. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    15. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    16. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    17. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    18. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    19. European Commission, 1998. "Structures of the taxation systems in the European Union 1970-1996," Taxation trends 1998, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    20. Martin Gregor, 2004. "Governing Fiscal Commons in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers IES 56, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    21. Gleich, Holger, 2003. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    22. European Commission, 2002. "Structure of the taxation systems in the European Union: 2002 edition," Taxation trends 2002, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    23. Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064, November.
    24. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert E & Diba, Behzad T, 2001. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 667-690, October.
    25. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    26. Ms. Yan M Sun, 2003. "Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?," IMF Working Papers 2003/078, International Monetary Fund.
    27. European Commission, 2013. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2013 edition," Taxation trends 2013, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    28. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Detken, Carsten & Henry, Jérôme & Smets, Frank & Dieppe, Alistair & Marin, Carmen, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank.
    30. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 314, European Central Bank.
    31. European Commission, 2002. "Structure of the taxation systems in the European Union: 2002 edition," Taxation trends 2002, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    32. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    33. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    34. John F. Henry, 1984. "On Equilibrium," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 6(2), pages 214-229, January.
    35. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Mr. Donogh McDonald, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe," IMF Working Papers 1991/025, International Monetary Fund.
    36. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    37. Lucio Sarno & Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2003. "The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 295-333, November.
    38. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Martin Cincibuch & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real Appreciation in Tradables in Transition Countries," Working Papers 2004/09, Czech National Bank.
    40. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: A Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 2004/002, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, June.
    42. European Commission, 2000. "Structures of the taxation systems in the European Union : 2000 edition," Taxation trends 2000, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Zápal & OndÅej Schneider, 2006. "What Are Their Words Worth?: The Political Plans and Economic Pains of Fiscal Consolidations in the New EU Member States," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 6-37, October.
    2. Ondrej Schneider, 2007. "The EU Budget Dispute – A Blessing in Disguise?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 304-323, September.
    3. M. Castellani & L. Fanelli & M. Savioli, 2015. "Government fiscal efforts vs. labour union strikes. Strategic substitutes or complements?," Working Papers wp1013, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Dora Győrffy, 2007. "Deficit Bias and Moral Hazard on the Road to the EMU: The Political Dimension of Fiscal Policy in Hungary," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16.
    5. Cezara Vinturis, 2019. "A multi-speed fiscal Europe? Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU Former Communist Countries," Working Papers hal-03097483, HAL.
    6. Massimiliano Castellani & Luca Fanelli & Marco Savioli, 2013. "Government Fiscal Efforts vs. Labour Union Strikes: It Takes Two to Tango," Working Paper series 33_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2014.
    7. Matthieu Llorca & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2008. "Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 159-172.
    8. Srđan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(4), pages 489-500, December.
    9. Ondrej Schneider, 2019. "Partisan Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 8014, CESifo.
    10. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    11. Ileana Tache & Gheorghita Dinca & Melinda Keul, 2008. "Fiscal policy making in the new EU post-communist countries," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 69(03), pages 80-107.
    12. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    13. Ralph M. Wrobel, 2008. "Balanced Budget Rules in Europe: A Comparative Institutional Analysis," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 153-168, March.
    14. Mihaela Bebeşelea & Paula Cornelia Mitran & Octavian Neguriţă, 2012. "Econometric model Concerning The Impact Of The Fiscal Policy Upon The Economic Development. The Case Of The Countries From Central And Eastern Europe, Members Of The European Union," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 2(3), pages 1-12, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    2. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    5. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    6. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    7. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    11. European Commission, 2009. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2009 edition," Taxation trends 2009, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    12. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    13. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    14. European Commission, 2012. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2012 edition," Taxation trends 2012, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    15. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    16. European Commission, 2017. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2017 edition," Taxation trends 2017, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    17. European Commission, 2007. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2007 edition," Taxation trends 2007, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    18. European Commission, 2005. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2005 edition," Taxation trends 2005, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    19. Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. European Commission, 2016. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2016 edition," Taxation trends 2016, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    21. European Commission, 2008. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2008 edition," Taxation trends 2008, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; new member states; consolidations; Stability and Growth Pact; Excessive Deficit Procedure; growth accounting; probit analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.